What you need to know about the UK mutation and what it means for the end of the pandemic

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Andy Larsen answers the big questions about the new COVID-19 variant, including why we don’t know if it’s still here.

(AP Photo / Frank Augstein) Police stand next to an electronic warning notifying of coronavirus testing to help eliminate an accumulation of goods, trucks and passengers outside the port of Dover in Dover, England, on Wednesday 23 December 2020. and passengers with a negative virus test have begun arriving on the French coast, after France relaxed a two-day blockade on a new virus variant. The blockade had isolated Britain, stranded thousands of drivers and raised fears of scarcity.

| December 27, 2020, 1:00 p.m.

Is there one last surprise waiting for us in 2020?

Since the pandemic began, there has been some fear of a mutant strain that changes the game of the virus. So when British scientists discovered a new variant called B.1.1.7 in December, it’s natural that we wanted to know if our fears had come true.

After a couple of weeks of study, we have gained some real knowledge of what is going on here, where our fears have been realized and where they have not occurred. Both the science of the variant and its possible consequences are very interesting, so we break down the current state of research. But first, let me answer the question I know is at the forefront of your mind. Is here? Is it in the United States or even in Utah? The quick answer is we don’t know, keep reading and I’ll tell you why.

How did we discover the new variant?

In the county of Kent, in the south-east of England, scientists were trying to find out what was behind an unexpected increase in infections. They genetically sequenced samples from some patients and found something they did not expect: a variant of the coronavirus that was significantly different from that usually spread in the area.

In particular, there were 17 mutations in this variant. It is a very large number, because the virus usually detects one or two mutations a month.

And it turns out that viral changes could be significant. Many times, mutations do nothing, such as a sentence with a typographical error, the meaning of the genetic language remains the same even with one or two different letters. The body reads the sentence in a normal way anyway.

But in this variant, typographical errors seemed to really matter. One of the mutations has been conjectured to facilitate the binding of the virus to human cells. Another mutation can sometimes help the virus bypass the human immune response.

Wow. If the virus usually has one or two mutations a month, how did this variant get 17 changes without us realizing it?

The main hypothesis is that it came from an individual’s long battle with the coronavirus. In some unusual cases in recent months, the virus has the potential to replicate so many times that mutations can occur at an accelerated rate. This is especially true when the virus has to dodge all sorts of medically induced barriers, from drug remdesivir to plasma therapy.
Let’s take this example of a 45-year-old man who fought the coronavirus for five months before succumbing to the disease. Scientists sequenced his virus throughout his illness and found numerous mutations.

A 45-year-old man saw repeated mutations in the coronavirus during a 5-month battle with the disease.

Most of the time, these viral changes die with the individual involved. After all, the long-term COVID-19 patient is usually in a hospital, minimizing the chance of giving it to someone else. In this case, however, it seems that the variant escaped the world.

What is the difference between a variant and a strain?

It should be borne in mind that we are not facing a new “strain” of the coronavirus, but a new “variant”. Basically, think of it this way: the SARS-CoV-2 that caused this pandemic is a different strain from the SARS-CoV-1 virus that caused the 2003 pandemic. The level of mutation we see in this virus in the UK is not it is significant enough to reach the level of the term “strain”.

Does this variant make the coronavirus more contagious?

We are still finding out. To do this, we compare the speed with which the new variant spreads compared to other variants in the UK

In particular, a pre-printed study published on Wednesday estimates that this version could be 56% more transmissible. Another estimate said the variant could be 70% more transmissible. Let’s say the first ones were true. In this case, you could multiply the current R0 contagious number (the measure of how many people are infected by the average person with coronavirus) by 1.56.

Regardless of the number, remember that these estimates are based on circumstantial evidence. What is happening in the UK could be due to other factors: what if the variant first spread to a particularly social or careless group of people? It might be enough to explain the differences.

But wait! We also found that people with the variant also have, on average, higher viral loads in their throats. This could explain, in part, why we see a higher spread: patients of the variant are able to spread more virus particles than usual.

Therefore, although we do not know for sure, we have a proposed biological mechanism to increase infection, an epidemiological mechanism to increase infection, and when we count cases, we see an increase in infection. I think the conclusion that the variant is more contagious is relatively safe, although we will want to do more research to determine exactly how much more contagious.

Does the variant cause more serious illnesses?

We have no evidence at this time. According to the European version of our Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, no mortality or poorer clinical results have been reported.

However, officials offer a limitation: most of those who have had coronavirus viruses sequenced are under 60 years old. It’s good that we don’t see this variant killing huge strips of young people, but we don’t really know what happens to older people.

It is worth remembering, however, that viruses tend to evolve to be more contagious and less severe. As Derek Lowe of Science says, “Remember, it’s not the job of a virus to make people sick to death: it’s the job of a virus to make more viruses. In general, it is generally best served by strains that are easier to catch and do not start too badly for their guests.

Is the new variant in the United States?

We haven’t found it, but this is due to a curious difference in the amount of coronavirus samples we sequence in our country and the UK. As of Wednesday, the United States had sequenced 37 coronavirus samples throughout December. In the UK, researchers have sequenced 3,774 samples in that same time period.

Epidemiologist Trevor Bedford analyzes the number of specimens sequenced over time in the United Kingdom against the United States (Source: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1341806686965665792)

Considering that about 60% of London cases are the new variant right now, it looks like it probably would have slipped into the United States at some point, but we just don’t know if it has or where it is. The US really needs to increase the speed and amount of coronavirus sequencing.

Will vaccines work with the new variant?

We believe that vaccines will surely work, but we are checking their safety.

It is reasonable to be a little scared: after all, many of the mutations are in the section of the genetic code that creates the ear protein of the virus, which is also the target part of our vaccines. If this rise changed too radically, vaccines could become ineffective.

But if that were the case, the variant would probably also evade the antibodies that are created when people get the coronavirus. This would mean that people who have already been ill could get sick again. But in England they see no reinfections. In short, natural antibodies continue to work, so there are good reasons to think that vaccine antibodies will work, too.

There is a possibility that the vaccine is not as effective in this variant as others, but we are talking about percentage points, not failure in the game change. Both Moderna and Pfizer say their scientists will conduct experiments to learn more.

What impact will the variant have on the final stages of the pandemic?

Well, it can wreak havoc.

In the United States, most states have established limited coronavirus restrictions because they have proven to be enough to keep the virus out of control, even though they allow people to live their daily lives. As a result, most of America sees an effective number of contagion around 1, which means that all infected people are becoming infected, so cases are slowly growing or shrinking. Currently, the Utah R is estimated to be 1.01, for example.

Breakdown of Rt.live from the effective infection rate (Rt) in the 50 US states as of December 24th.

But if the new variant began to spread to the United States and did so faster than we can vaccinate people, our current containment measures would not be enough. Our R of 1 would become an R of about 1.56 and we would see that the cases would start to double in a couple of weeks. Without change, they would continue to grow exponentially and our hospitals would be outgrown.

That is why the UK is once again shutting people down and requiring them to stay home, except in cases of urgent travel, medical appointments and outdoor exercise. Most flights have been canceled, restaurants are closed, and so on.

Our hope is that Britain’s containment efforts have had some success and that we can increase vaccinations in time to overcome the new variant. Giving at least 60% of people a vaccine that is 90% effective is one really effective way to reduce coronavirus in a community.

But the variant can increase the pressure of the vaccination race, no doubt. It has always been important to get doses to as many people as possible as quickly as possible, but especially in the case of a coronavirus change that is especially contagious.

Andy Larsen is a data columnist. He is also one of the Utah Jazz beat writers for The Salt Lake Tribune. You can get there at [email protected].

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