As the Christmas celebrations come to an end and preparations for New Year’s Eve begin, new restrictions have become effective in Massachusetts that seek to curb a further rise in holiday-related COVID-19 cases.
According to Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health School, there are big concerns for it to happen again after the end-of-year holiday period.
“I am very, very concerned that over the next few weeks we will see an additional new wave of an increase in new infections,” he told NBC10 Boston.
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But when would these tests probably appear? Thanksgiving, which inspired the new restrictions, can make sense.
“There’s no doubt that the informal meetings that took place … around Thanksgiving had a big impact on test rates and a big impact on our hospitalizations,” the Massachusetts governor said. , Charlie Baker, at a press conference a week before Christmas. “Thanksgiving left us behind.”
An increase in cases followed the Massachusetts vacation, although a decline in the number of trips around Thanksgiving was reported compared to a typical year. Just not right away.
In the first days after Thursday, November 26, the case count remained relatively the same. On Nov. 27, the day after Thanksgiving, Massachusetts made an average of approximately 2,400 new confirmed cases of coronavirus a day, according to data from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health.
Medical experts across the country and here in Massachusetts are increasingly concerned, we will soon see a post-Thanksgiving increase in the number of COVID cases, which will create an increase in an increase.
The increase occurred over the next week, as the daily average of cases increased dramatically. As of Monday, November 30, recently reported cases increased by 10% or more for four consecutive days, culminating in a 20% jump from December 2-3. As of Dec. 4, the average number of cases reported each day had reached 4,300, nearly double the figure reported the day after Thanksgiving.
The average positivity rate of the COVID-19 test in the state, meanwhile, began to rise even earlier. After staying between 3% and 3.3% for two weeks before Thanksgiving, the number had already started to rise on November 24th. But 10 days later, on December 4, the average rate reached 6% for the first time since June 1.
Urging Bay Staters to skip the holiday celebrations, Baker said earlier this month that “we really can’t make them the kind of consequent events Thanksgiving has had in Massachusetts.”
And the governor invoked the post-Thanksgiving increase when he announced the new set of rules on Tuesday.
He said that, seven days after Thanksgiving, “we saw a big bulge in positive cases.” Hospital acute care beds went from 67% occupied during the holidays to a maximum of 83% occupied on December 15, about three weeks after Thanksgiving.
Gov. Charlie Baker announces new restrictions on Massachusetts residents to prevent a new coronavirus rise, including reducing the capacity of most industries to 25 percent and reducing meetings to a maximum of 10 people.
The new rules, which began on Saturday and will last at least two weeks, reduced occupancy to 25% capacity for a wide list of businesses, including restaurants, places of worship, gyms and retail.
Covered meetings and events are limited to just ten people, while outdoor meetings and events cannot have more than 25 people. Workers and staff are not included in the event occupancy count, but the limits apply to private homes as well as public spaces and events.
Baker had hoped that this round of restrictions would begin until after Christmas to allow religious celebrations to continue, including many Christians to physically attend the traditional Mass. He hoped people would continue to celebrate safely, he said.
If a post-Christmas rise is similar to the post-Thanksgiving one, a sharp rise in cases could start on Monday or Tuesday.
Gov. Charlie Baker hinted that more restrictions could be reached to minimize the impact of another significant rise, as he made a request for Christmas week to residents, begging them to stay home for the holidays.
But New Year’s Eve is also part of the equation, as new restrictions also apply to these holidays and the week between Christmas and Christmas, when many schools are out of session and families traditionally visit, ha said Baker.
Jha said he expects the increase to be evident from January 4 or 5, just days after the end of the holiday week. He said it can take five to seven days for the rises to be evident.
“It takes a while: people get infected, develop symptoms, get tested and this data is communicated,” Jha said.
No new climb may arrive in Massachusetts, but travel suggests people have been visiting family and friends over the holidays, though experts and officials have warned against it.
Although the airports seemed more empty than usual during the holidays, many people continued to travel despite the warnings.
The lines were seen Monday morning at the box office of Boston Logan International Airport, which has seen a sharp drop in traffic through the pandemic, and the U.S. Transportation Security Administration reported that 1, 3 million people passed their checkpoints on Sunday, most in a single day since March.
“What he’s telling me is that a lot of people are getting tired of staying home, and I understand that,” Jha said, adding, “The problem is we’re in the worst phase of the pandemic.”