COVID-19: Soumya Swaminathan said it is impossible to predict a third wave. (File)
New Delhi:
COVID-19 in India may be entering some kind of endemic stage in which there is a low or moderate level of transmission, said the chief scientist of the World Health Organization, Dr. Soumya Swaminathan.
The endemic stage is when a population learns to live with a virus. It is very different from the stage of the epidemic when the virus overwhelms a population.
On the authorization of Covaxin, he said he is quite confident that the WHO technical group will be pleased to give Covaxin permission to be one of its authorized vaccines and that it could happen in mid-September.
In an interview with journalist Karan Thapar for the news website The wire, Said Swaminathan, given the size of India and the heterogeneity of the population and the state of immunity in different parts of the country, it is “very feasible” that the situation could continue like this with ups and downs in various parts of the nation.
“We may be entering some kind of endemic stage where low-level or moderate transmission occurs, but we don’t see the types of exponential growth and peaks we saw a few months ago,” Swaminathan said.
“As for India, it seems to be what is happening and due to the size of India and the heterogeneity of the population and the state of immunity in different parts of the country in different pockets, it is very feasible that the situation can continue like this with ups and downs in different parts of the country, particularly where there is a more susceptible population, so that those groups that were perhaps less affected by the first and second wave or those areas with low levels of vaccine coverage, we could see peaks and troughs over the next few months, “she said.
He said he hopes that by the end of 2022 “we will be in the position that we have achieved vaccine coverage, for example, 70%, and then countries can return to normal.”
On the prevalence of Covid among children, Swaminathan said parents do not need to panic.
“We can draw from the sero survey and from what we have learned from other countries that, although it is possible for children to become infected and transmitted, fortunately children have a very mild disease most of the time and there are a small percentage who get sick and suffer from inflammatory complications and few will die, but much less than the adult population … But it is good to prepare … preparing hospitals for pediatric admissions, pediatric intensive care will serve our system health in many ways for other diseases that children have but we should not panic if thousands of children crowd into the ICU, ”he said.
According to her, on the use of drugs such as Remdesivir, HCQ or Ivermectin for treatment, there is no evidence that HCQ or Ivermectin has any role to play in reducing mortality or morbidity in people infected with the virus or in the prevention of infection. , therefore, there are no reasons why recommendations can be made about the use of these drugs for treatment or prevention.
“The solidarity trial showed that Remdesivir does not reduce mortality, it may have a marginal benefit in a subgroup of patients who are sick enough to need oxygen but not sick enough to be ventilated, so there may be a marginal benefit, “But certainly Remdesivir not long ago is also very expensive. Drugs like dexamethasone and oxygen are the two essentials that save lives,” he added.
On Covaxin’s authorization, he said the decision can be made hopefully in mid-September.
“Bharat Biotech sent its data in the third week of July, which was the first data set, then there was an updated data set that arrived in mid-August. The committee has returned to the company with “Some questions that should be. I am in the process of answering now.
“So in mid-September I’m thinking, and the reason it took longer was because of the round trip and the need for more data requested from the company and that’s the usual process. People believes that it will take longer in Covaxin than in others, but this is not the case … every company that requested EUL (emergency use list) had taken this period from 4 to 6 to 8 weeks to get all the necessary data, ”he said.
On the third wave, he said no one had a “crystal ball” and it was impossible to predict a third wave.
“It will be impossible to predict when, where the third wave will arrive and if a third wave will arrive. However, you can make a polite assumption about some of the variables that have an impact on transmission,” he said. .
On booster doses, he said there are both ethical and scientific reasons for not rushing the boosters.
“… therefore, it would also be in the interest of countries that have overdoses to send those doses through Covax to countries that desperately need them,” he said.
Regarding the concept of vaccine passport, he said: “We do not believe that vaccination should be a prerequisite at least globally to do things like travel because we have not given everyone the opportunity to get vaccinated; there is so much inequality in access to vaccines, so the first thing is to get rid of inequality and allow vaccinated people to relax certain measures. “
Vaccine passports are used to allow international travel to people completely vaccinated against coronavirus.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)