India now consistently records a six-figure incorporation in cases every day, while daily deaths are also around 800.
This alarming rise in numbers, very serious and rapid from what was found during the first wave, has baffled everyone. Especially when it seemed that the country had successfully controlled the situation just a couple of months ago.
But what has led to this dreadful spike? Is it insensitivity on the part of citizens? Are there new and highly infectious variants at play? Did we open too soon?
This is what the government and experts believe …
What the center says
The Center has set out three main reasons for the continuous increase in figures: lack of adherence to Covid rules (wearing masks and social distancing), pandemic fatigue and lack of effective implementation of containment measures at the field level. .
During his interaction with the chief ministers, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had mentioned how the people, as well as governments, have become casual in their fight against coronavirus possessing a long and fierce battle against the pandemic.
The government has repeatedly said that people do not behave appropriately in Covid in a public place, which could be one of the main reasons for the increase.
This is largely related to pandemic fatigue, as people feel demotivated to follow recommended behaviors to protect themselves and others from the virus.
Experts weigh
Experts also believe that the lack of proper behavior in Covid could be the main culprit for the increase.
Virologists Shahid Jameel and T Jacob John agree that not following the Covid-19 protocol, including informing people that they should continue with precautions even after being vaccinated, and that a slow boost of vaccination is responsible for the ‘increase.
Speaking to PTI, Jameel said the interaction of mutants and vaccines over the next two months will also decide Covid’s future in India and the world.
“The intensity of the increase also suggests that there were a large number of susceptible people after the first wave,” the director of the Trivedi School of Biosciences at Ashoka University in Haryana told PTI.
The fact that people lowered their guard and did not follow Covid’s protocols after the first wave ended is “certainly a valid explanation” for the increase, Jameel said.
“Anything that opened up to pre-risk levels and behaviors that were no longer at risk exposed the susceptible population to a large extent. A new factor is emerging mutants, both imported and self-produced,” he added. eminent virologist.
John, a professor of virology at Christian Medical College (CMC) in Tamil Nadu, agreed with Jameel, saying that not following Covid-19 protocols is partly to blame for the new wave.
“The descent of the guard was led by the central government and followed by all political parties, all religious groups and the general public. Schools and colleges were opened without vaccinating all staff. This partly explains the second. wave, ”John told PTI.
“Where the infection increased, stricter discipline should have been imposed, but with the election ahead, no leader wanted it. Elections during the pandemic had to be carefully planned,” the renowned virologist said. and PTI.
Dr. Gauri Agarwal, founder-director of the Genestrings Diagnostic Center, told ANI that now the violation of Covid rules is widespread across the country.
“The main reason for the increase in cases is an unbridled violation of the Covid protocols. Since the end of last year, we have seen how people have not bothered to follow the protocols and this increase in cases is not a surprise. .
“Variants are also to blame”
The scientist also agreed that variants are the other reason for the second wave, adding that it was too late for India to look for mutants.
“The two factors came together and we responded without leadership at the critical moment. The speed of propagation in the second wave is twice as fast as in the first wave. Partly due to variants and partly due to the reduction of the protection, “John explained.
Referring to a health ministry briefing on March 24, Jameel noted that UK variants now appear in approximately 80% of cases from Punjab.
“A new double mutant has emerged in India and was reported in 15-20 per cent of the cases analyzed from Maharashtra. If this percentage increases further, it would be a clear indication of its role in the rise of Maharashtra,” he said. said the virologist.
Dr Aggarwal said a deep understanding of the mutations is needed.
“The other factor (behind the increase) may be the various mutations in the virus, some of which may be more transmissible than others. However, a deeper understanding of the mutant strains and their virulence by sequencing the genome of more samples, ”he said.
In India, variants identified for the first time have been found in the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil.
The government has said it is difficult to relate the current increase to the mutant strains detected in the country. saying the relationship between the two remains “speculative.”
In late March, the National Center for Disease Control (NCDC) announced that a new variant had been identified in saliva samples taken from people in Maharashtra, Delhi and Punjab.
Genome sequencing by the Indian Genomics SARS-CoV-2 consortium (INSACOG), a consortium of 10 laboratories in India, identified two important mutations in the variant called “double mutant”.
Explaining that the UK variant is known to be approximately 50% more infectious, Jameel said that one of the two mutants in the double mutant was also found in California, USA, where it was associated with an increase in transmission.
Vaccination unit
Experts also discussed the country’s vaccination push.
According to John, the government started the work too late and no vaccination outcome target was set.
“India started the slow deployment of vaccines in January of the third week, but first it was a symbolic reward for vaccinated health workers even when there was no need for it, and we wasted a lot of vaccines,” he said. to say.
“Was an advance purchase order given to the vaccination companies so that production would accelerate during the same last year before approvals were obtained?” John asked.
Jameel said there was “poor communication” by officials to people who were vaccinated about how to proceed with precautions such as masks and social distancing. Describing Covid-19’s situation in India as “curious,” Jameel said the country was on a falling curve of daily infections when vaccinations began in mid-January.
“For various reasons, those eligible, including health and front-line workers, were hesitant to get vaccinated. Those over 60 did not show enough anxiety either, although cases had begun to rise in early March.
“We are now on a very fast upward curve, with only 0.7% of Indians having received both doses and only 5% having received one dose. This is too low to have an impact,” he added.
The President of the Council for Health and Pharmacy, Dr. Gurpreet Sandhu told ANI that vaccine vaccination in India needs to be addressed.
“Despite the best efforts of the authorities, the ongoing pandemic has caused some of the inequalities in access to health that continue to affect our country. In the meantime, the vaccination of the vaccine needs to be addressed in various parts of the country. Therefore, it is necessary to invigorate our efforts to spread the “good word” of vaccines in all corners of the country.This would also help to achieve health equity in the country.With the vaccination process underway, there is a certain overconfidence and negligent behavior is evident, ”he said.
However, India’s vaccination is slowly increasing as the country relaxed its 45-year age limit last month.
The Union Health Ministry said on Saturday that India has become the fastest country to reach 100 million vaccines, reaching the milestone in just 85 days.
But the vaccination program still faces several challenges, such as the scarcity of doses in several severely affected states and the issue of vaccine waste.
(With PTI, ANI tickets)