Why China falls with Australia (and its allies): QuickTake

Photographer: Cameron Spencer / Getty Images

China and Australia have been embroiled in a political deepening that is spreading to trade. Even with some Chinese cities suffering power outages in December, Beijing authorities continued to block coal shipments from Australia, underscoring their determination. Miners aren’t the only Down Under exporters who have a harder time accessing their larger market as tensions rise, nor does Australia just feel hot. Other countries that have clashed with China, including Canada, the United Kingdom and India, have joined Australia to boost cooperation and intelligence exchange, while the new US president has promised a more united front against Beijing.

1. What does China-Australia spit out?

Ties have been spiraling downward since 2018, when Australia, accusing China of meddling in his internal affairs, he passed to new law against foreign interference and espionage. He also banned Huawei Technologies Co. created the country’s 5G mobile network, among the first countries to do so, citing national security. The atmosphere worsened in April after the government of Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an international investigation into the origins of the coronavirus caused by Covid-19. In November, a spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry tweeted about the edited image of an Australian soldier holding a knife to the throat of an Afghan boy, a bearded reference to an ongoing investigation. war crimes. At a time when the Chinese ““wolf warrior” diplomats are increasingly combative, Morrison’s the apology was denied.

2. What has been the economic impact?

Given that China is from Australia main trading partner by far, the impact has been relatively small, although the affected sectors should differ. Beginning in May, China clashed with the paralyzing tariffs on Australian barley; a ban on beef to four major meat processors; launched an anti-dumping probe on Australian wine that sparked massive impositions; and told importers to stop buying cotton and locusts. Timber exports were banned and at least $ 500 million worth of coal was delayed outside Chinese ports, apparently one of the catalysts for the blackouts. Still, while retaliation has spawned countless headlines and spurred some exporters to call on Morrison to back down, the combined impact in January amounted to a loss of just 0.3% of Australia’s gross domestic product, or 6,000 million Australian dollars ($ 4.7 billion), according to government data. Sales of iron ore, the country’s largest cash cow, continue to boom.

3. Why is China doing this?

After months of obfuscation, the Chinese embassy published a list of 14 grievances in November. They include Australian decisions to reject Chinese investment on national security grounds, providing funding for what it considers a think tank against China and “incessant absurd interference” in Chinese affairs in relation to Taiwan, Hong Kong and Hong Kong Xinjiang, et al South China Sea. He also cited accusations of racist attacks against the Chinese and accused the nation’s independent media of being antagonistic. But state-backed academics in China have said that what angers the Beijing authorities the most is Morrison’s push for Wuhan to be allowed independent researchers, who he considers a mild anti-Chinese sovereignty, as well as the will of his government to echo and coordinate with the President of the United States. Donald Trump’s campaign against China. “Frankly, we have heard too many negative voices and we have seen several negative moves from the Australian side,” Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in December. President Xi Jinping’s government has a history of using trade as a parent company South Korea, Japan and Taiwan have suffered retaliation in recent years.

4. Is there a way out for Australia?

It is not obvious. Chinese diplomats and state media have said it is Until the Canberra government re-established ties, but have not made it clear publicly which Australian moves would be enough to reverse trade retaliation. Chen Hong, director of the Australian Studies Center at Eastern China Normal University in Shanghai, said China is unlikely to back down until it sees substantial, not just rhetorical, actions. Morrison has indicated that he is unwilling to act on any of the 14 complaints; it looks like he and his ministers are waiting for China to lower the temperature, so a new one is created “resolution point ”in the relationship. Meanwhile, at the end of the year, Australia said it would formally do so challenges China to World Trade Organization.

5. Is Australia the sole recipient country?