Natural disasters in Central America, economic devastation, gang wars, political oppression, and a new administration are driving the sharp rise in U.S.-Mexico border crossings, an incipient crisis for President Biden.
Why it’s important: Migratory flows are complex and quickly politicized. Biden’s policies are likely to send signals that favor the rise, but that’s just a small reason it’s happening.
- Circumstances in foreign nations force migrants to leave (push factors), while the situation in the US attracts them (attraction factors).
- Many have been forced to flee distressing problems in their home countries, experts say. Others expect better economic prospects.
What’s new: It has been a few months since two devastating hurricanes left thousands homeless in Honduras. The country’s largest newspaper, Diario El Heraldo, reported that many are left in the shelters of Tegucigalpa with nowhere to go.
- Storms, drought and the pandemic have caused food shortages across Central America.
- Violence between Honduran gangs is also angering, even in rural areas, forcing residents to flee north.
- Shelters in Mexico also report an increase in Central American migrants.
- “We have a huge flow and no capacity. The situation could get out of hand, “Gabriel Romero, a priest who runs a migrant shelter in the southern Mexican state of Tabasco, told The Associated Press.
Experts said the change from the repression of the Trump administration to the perception of a more welcoming Biden administration also contributes to migrants ’hope for the United States as a refuge.
- Regardless of the readiness of border systems, migrants who have been considering coming to the United States probably now consider their window to make the trip often dangerous, experts said.
- “We know enough about migration to know that the most reliable sources of information for future migrants are not usually what public officials say, but what they hear through their own networks … as well as through the smugglers. “he told Axios Doris Meissner of the Institute for Migration Policy.
Between lines: The increase in migrant children from Central America has been increasing for weeks.
- Border Patrol agents arrested more than 900 unaccompanied migrant children in December in the El Paso sector, which includes the Far West Texas and New Mexico, El Paso Matters reports.
- This is the highest number since June 2019, according to Customs and Border Protection data.
The big picture: In addition, there are several long-term trends that contribute to the increase in asylum seekers in the US.
- The number of borders tends to increase with a warmer climate, peaking around May. The numbers are unusually high right now, but the timing follows a typical seasonal pattern.
- Immigrants often come from Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador, which “have been in desperate conditions for a long time,” Meissner said. “It’s a series of things. Obviously, the issue of employment, the economy and poverty, etc. But it’s covered in severe violence and gang recruitment and a lot of domestic abuse.”
- Climate change has had an impact on the crucial coffee-producing industry in Guatemala, which has been a factor that has contributed to migration from here.
There is also a long history of economic migration of Central American countries and Mexico.
- “The country of Honduras has become incredibly dependent on migration to the United States and the income that U.S. immigrants get and send back to their families,” said Daniel Reichman, a Honduran migration expert at the University of Rochester. .
- The asylum system was not intended for economic migration, but it is often the only route available. Reichman argues that U.S. immigration laws should better reflect the desire for many migrants to work in the country, but then return home.
Background story: The current increase in migrant children at the border is not the first. Former President Donald Trump had a family and child crisis in 2019 and former President Barack Obama dealt with another in 2014.
- “If you don’t launch a Marshall Plan for Central America, you won’t stop people from leaving their countries because of violence and economic devastation,” said Fernando Garcia, executive director of the Border Network for Human Rights.
The summary: “As for the way analysts and politicians view these issues, it tends to fall when you really emphasize the push or really focus the attention,” Meissner said. “But the fact is they’re both.”