JACKSONVILLE, Florida – The Jacksonville Jaguars are just over a week away from having the franchised quarterback the team has been trying to find for two decades.
Trevor Lawrence is the best quarterback player since Andrew Luck (and perhaps Peyton Manning), ESPN NFL fourth draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr., who has lost just four games as a starter since his first stint . year of high school.
It’s so good that it caused Gil Brandt, who wrote nine future Hall of Fame in 29 seasons as vice president of staff for the Dallas Cowboys players, to describe him like this: “Trevor Lawrence is [John] Elway Athlete [and] Manning accuracy. So I think you will get the best of both. “He’s expected to make a franchise that hasn’t done very well since he had the best record in the NFL in 1999 and has lost ten or more games in nine of the last 10 seasons. Lawrence with No. 1 pick in next week’s draft (April 29-May 1, ESPN / ESPN app) Jaguars fans, as well as those in the organization, especially at ticket sales, are understandably ecstatic and expect Lawrence to be the key to the franchise, eventually having sustained success and becoming an annual playoff contender.
But a little caution to moderate excessive expectations: drafting a quarterback with the first overall selection is no guarantee of a future appearance in the Super Bowl. Or even a playoff appearance. And in some cases, not even a season with a winning record.
What does the story say?
Eight of the 25 quarterbacks ranked first since the 1970 AFL / NFL merger have won a Super Bowl with the team that drafted them, but only three won a championship: Terry Bradshaw (Pittsburgh Steelers), Troy Aikman (Dallas Cowboys) and Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts). Three others, Jim Plunkett (Oakland / Los Angeles Raiders), John Elway (Denver Broncos) and Eli Manning (New York Giants), won the Super Bowls with later teams, and Elway and Manning changed soon after their selection. .
Eli Manning, who was selected by the San Diego Chargers in 2004, is the last quarterback to achieve first overall in winning a Super Bowl (2007 and 2011 seasons). Only two of the eleven quarterbacks to finish first in the overall standings since Eli Manning won the Super Bowl: Cam Newton, with the Carolina Panthers, and Jared Goff, with the Los Angeles Rams, lost the game. Five of the 11 have not even reached the playoffs. Bradshaw (four) and Aikman (three) are the only quarterbacks to have won several Super Bowls with the teams that drafted them. Eli Manning won two with the Giants, Elway won two with the Broncos and Plunkett won two with the Raiders. Somehow, perhaps because of Tom Brady’s ridiculous seven rings (and counting?), Super Bowl wins have become one of the quarterback’s final stats. It may be a little unfair because even those Super Bowl winners had a lot of help, whether they were Hall of Fame receivers or runners, first 10 defenses or multiple All-Pro and Pro Bowlers.
• Bradshaw played with four other offensive halls of fame (center Mike Webster, runner Franco Harris and great receivers Lynn Swann and John Stallworth) in addition to the steel curtain defense that included four more halls of fame .
• Aikman played with wide receiver Michael Irvin and runner-up Emmitt Smith, both of the Hall of Fame, and Smith is the most important runner of all time in the NFL. In addition, the Cowboys finished in the top ten in scoring defense and total defense in each of the three years they won the Super Bowl.
• Elway had three other halls of fame on offense: runner Terrell Davis, winger Shannon Sharpe and offensive tackle Gary Zimmerman. The two winning teams in the Elway Super Bowl also finished 11th or better in goal-scoring and total defense.
• Peyton Manning’s defense ranked in the 1920s in scoring and total defense the year he won the Super Bowl with Indianapolis, but runner Edgerrin James and wide receiver Marvin Harrison made it to the Hall of Fame .
• Eli Manning didn’t have a Hall of Famer on his side on offense nor did he have a statistically robust defense, but he did get help from two incredible throws and catches at the end of the game, as well as a passing run that harassed Tom Brady in both of us. Super Bowl victories.
• Plunkett won his Super Bowls with his third team, the Raiders, after failing with the Patriots (who drafted him in 1971) and the 49ers. Those Raiders championship teams had star strength. Offensively, they had four halls of fame: runner Marcus Allen, offensive lineman Art Shell, tight end Dave Casper and guard Gene Upshaw. And they boasted of three more on defense: defensive end Howie Long, cornerback Mike Haynes and defensive end Ted Hendricks.
Training cannot be overlooked either. Here is the list of top coaches from the top six overall quarterbacks who won the Super Bowls: Chuck Noll (Steelers), Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer (Cowboys), Tom Coughlin (Giants), Mike Shanahan (Broncos), Tony Dungy (Colts)) and Tom Flores (Raiders). Noll, Johnson and Dungy are in the Hall of Fame. Flores will join this summer.
Urban Meyer has not coached in the NFL, but is one of the best coaches in college football history, winning two national titles in Florida and one in Ohio State and a 148-24 combined with five conference titles in those schools. This could alleviate some of the pressure on Lawrence.
“Viously, obviously, as long as you’re the first overall pick, you’ll also feel a little bit of that weight,” said ESPN college football analyst Kirk Herbstreit. “But when it comes to this franchise that has to go in a different direction, I think the timing is good because you have a first-year head coach who has a lot of people every week dissecting all his moves as much as the quarterback.
“As if he were a Doug Marrone, everything will go to Trevor Lawrence for him [Marrone] it has been there for a few years. “
The gears are on the clock
Where does this leave Jaguars and Lawrence after 20:30 ET on April 29th?
That’s when the real work begins. Over the next few seasons, the Jaguars will have to build the roster with several players who will become Pro Bowlers or All-Pros (and maybe even the Hall of Famers). Even if Lawrence becomes the Elway-Manning combo as Brandt believes, he will still need help. ESPN’s Mike Clay has the The Jags list is ranked 31st of 32 NFL teams entering the draft.
The Jaguars have four players who have won a Pro Bowl each on the roster (defensive end Josh Allen, wide receiver DJ Chark Jr., winger Shaquill Griffin and striker Joe Schobert), but only Allen and Chark did it with the Jaguars. Returner Jamal Agnew is an All-Pro.
While the game’s biggest quarterbacks had help, they were the key to winning the Super Bowls. This puts immense pressure and expectations on Lawrence, as every quarterback has been first in the overall. But maybe it’s a little more unfair in Jacksonville, because it looks like Lawrence is being counted on to essentially save the franchise. It seems the Jaguars are always considered a transfer risk, and owner Shad Khan is constantly looking for new local revenue streams, which included an annual home game in London from 2013 to 19. This contract with the league expired after the last season – when the Jaguars were going to play two games there, which did not happen during the pandemic – and the team would like to renew it.
Sustained success and the fight for a championship would certainly generate more local revenue. That Lawrence would become the next big young QB in the league would be one of the keys to that.
“All players [taken atop the draft], it’s like you have to win three or four Super Bowls to explain what it is, “said former Tampa Bay CEO Mark Dominik.” If he gets to the postseason, he’s doing his job. But Trevor is a weird guy. If you talk to any Clemson player for the last three years, he has been praised continuously over the years. I think it’s an opportunity for him to go to a team a little more loaded than people realize and he has a chance to have an offensive impact. “High expectations are nothing new for Lawrence. He took over as a freshman as a freshman and went on to win two state titles at Cartersville (Georgia) High School, was the nation’s No. 1 recruit and went follow Deshaun Watson to Clemson.
“I don’t think there’s anything to do in Jacksonville that makes you feel a weight you haven’t felt yet, and to be honest with you, [it] that’s what he knows, “Herbstreit said.” He has known this weight to a different degree since he was in high school. I know this is probably his biggest strength: how he will handle the pressure of trying to turn a franchise upside down. “
Historically, this is a difficult question and some very good quarterbacks have not been able to achieve it or have not achieved sustained success. But there is a belief that Lawrence could become the third quarterback with the first overall ranking since Eli Manning in 2004 when he won a Super Bowl. “I don’t see any reason why he shouldn’t be a good quarterback,” Brandt said. “You don’t win as many high school championships as a true freshman in the state of Georgia, where football is really good, and then you win [a championship] to Clemson if you have nothing in favor. “