Why the California withdrawal is within the margin of error and what this means for Gavin Newsom

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Now, Democrats are worried that the Republican pipe dream could turn into a real Democratic nightmare on election day, Sept. 14.

A look at the data reveals that there is a very real chance of remembering Newsom, although it probably isn’t.

Voting on the withdrawal is limited. The average survey result matches well with a CBS News / YouGov poll published earlier this month that voted “no” on the withdrawal (52%) 4 points ahead of a “yes” vote (48 %).

Ergo, the anti-memory side is the favorite.

This is also shown by the political betting markets (a type of conventional measure of wisdom). Newsom is roughly a 3-1 favorite to recapture the memory.
However, these probabilities and the “no” advantage in voting are small and are within a margin of error. Based in races passed across the state, Newsom should have double digits on Sept. 14 to feel safe beyond any reasonable doubt it would win.

This is especially the case with a small amount of survey data: fewer than five surveys of any kind have been published this month publicly. In the last election of the California governor in office, in 2003, more than twice as many were published as during the same period.

Newsom may be further hurt by what polls indicate is a participation advantage for the pro-retirement side. We don’t know to what extent it can arise. The YouGov poll has the anti-withdrawal advantage that drops from 8 points among registered voters to 4 points among likely voters.

This change seems quite plausible according to the story. California elections regularly present turnout advantages for Republicans. This was the case in 2003, when he was then governor. Gray Davis was remembered. That was the case in the last major election in California, which took place outside of the year, when a Democrat was in the White House in 2014.

In fact, past elections with a Democrat in the White House suggest that the anti-withdrawal margin could be reduced by more than 5 points just because of turnout.

Previous data without surveys also suggest that Newsom should be favored, but not so much for making a successful recovery out of the margin of error.

Government elections correlate with previous presidential results, though not to the extent one might think. The government’s median run in elections outside of 2017 to 2019, for example, differed by only 7 points from the result of previous presidential elections in that state.

About 10% of these races presented results that differed by 30 points more than the previous presidential election in the state, which is what should happen here to win the recovery side.

In other words, it does happen. The last time a Democrat was in the White House during a midterm election (2014), a state with a diverse electorate like California and a similar Democratic magician, Maryland, elected a Republican governor.

Of course, a memory of the California election has some differences with a regularly timed government election.

One big difference is that voters in California vote “yes” or “no” when they remember Newsom, and then they will have to vote on a possible replacement in the same ballot. At the moment, the main replacement appears to be Conservative lawyer and talk show host Larry Elder, though that’s not yet true.

You can imagine many Republicans intending to vote for the withdrawal by staying at the polls because they don’t know who they will vote for as a replacement. In 2003, the vote for or against Davis was much firmer than that of who would be his replacement. This is one of the big reasons (beyond normal) why I would warn you not to read too much about party affiliations of those who first voted again.

Ultimately, the real information on whether Newsom will be remembered will likely be whether its pass rating among voters is above 50%.

The majority of votes so far indicate that this is likely to be the case. It’s hard to imagine a world where most voters would approve of Newsom’s performance and vote to remember it. In both the 2003 California withdrawal and the 2012 Wisconsin government withdrawal, the vote against the withdrawal coincided with or exceeded the percentage that approved the work the incumbent governor was doing.

Newsom surely hopes this story will be repeated. If he does and the turnout isn’t too much to the contrary, the Democrat will likely keep the government.

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