Tens of millions of people are expected to travel to family reunions or winter holidays over Christmas, despite requests from public health experts who fear the result could be another increase in COVID-19 cases.
In the U.S., AAA predicts that approximately 85 million people will travel between Dec. 23 and Jan. 3, most by car. If true, that would be a drop of almost a third from a year ago, but it would still be a massive movement of people amid a pandemic.
Jordan Ford, 24, who was fired as a guest relations worker at Disneyland in March, said he plans to visit her boyfriend’s families in Virginia and Arkansas over Christmas.
“It’s pretty safe: everyone wears a mask, cleans the cabin well,” said Ford, who has traveled almost weekly in recent months from his home in Anaheim, California, and is tested frequently. “After overcoming that first trip since the pandemic started, I think you’ll feel comfortable, no matter what.”
Experts worry that Christmas and New Year will become widespread events because many people are letting go of the guard, either because of pandemic fatigue or the hopeful news that vaccines are starting to be distributed.
“At the start of the pandemic, people weren’t traveling because they didn’t know what was coming,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco, “but there’s a feeling now that: ‘ If I understand it, it will be soft, it’s like a cold. ‘”
The rotating seven-day average of recently reported infections in the United States has gone from about 176,000 a day just before Thanksgiving to more than 215,000 a day. It is too early to calculate how much of this increase is due to travel and meetings above Thanksgiving, but experts believe they are a factor.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that “postponing travel and staying home is the best way to protect yourself and others from COVID-19.” People who insist on traveling should consider getting tested for the virus before and after the trip and limit non-essential activities for seven days after the trip with a negative test result and 10 days if they are not tested. .
Other countries have imposed restrictions before the holidays. Last month, England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland agreed that a maximum of three households could be mixed between 23 and 27 December, regardless of existing local restrictions.
The German motor association ADAC says holiday traffic will be drastically reduced. The reasons include not only the precaution and the government’s urge to avoid personal contact, but also the simple fact that the closure of many traditional destinations has been ordered, from the country’s charming Christmas markets to the resorts. alpine skiing.
Christmas markets have been canceled, usually attracting large crowds to city centers to get cups of mulled mulled wine; a closure imposed on December 9 closed the retail trade deemed non-essential.
Meanwhile, the usual motorway pilgrimage to the ski slopes, which usually begins on December 26, will be largely absent since France, Germany and Italy have ordered the closure of ski resorts. The borders are open but with significant limits, such as quarantine requirements.
In Latin America, some countries have imposed some restrictions to try to prevent people from traveling or gathering during the holidays, but others advise people to just practice social distancing and skip partying.
Panama has some of the strictest measures, such as a curfew until January 4 and a ban on leaving home from December 25 to 28 and from January 1 to 4, unless it is for essential activities. such as buying food or medicine. Peru, one of the countries most affected by the region, has banned the use of private cars on Christmas night and day and on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Eve in hopes of deterring people from traveling.
In the United States, Rachel Watterson postponed her New Year’s Eve wedding because her fiancé’s family cannot travel to the United States from their home in Germany. Instead, the couple plans to flee and fly from their home in Chicago to Hawaii with their parents, brother and friend. They chose Hawaii because of requirements that include coronavirus testing before arrival and a quick test at the airport.
“We considered this to be one of the few safe options we can take if we’re going to travel,” Watterson said.
Tim Brooks, a 37-year-old engineer in Long Beach, California, canceled a trip to Grand Cayman due to a ban on international visitors, and then dismissed a Christmas visit to his parents in North Carolina while infections they increased in California and across the country. .
“If it was just us, it wouldn’t be so bad, but we have older parents and we’re trying to keep them safe,” Brooks said.
Airports and planes will be much less crowded this year in what is usually a high travel season. As of December, air travel in the United States has dropped 67% from last year. If Thanksgiving is an indication, the number of passengers will increase the rest of the month, but airlines warn that bookings have slowed since the last increase in COVID-19 cases.
The country’s top four airlines now show December and January schedules that are 33% to 46% smaller than a year earlier, according to data from Airline Data Inc.
Last week, the average flight to the United States was only 49% complete compared to more than 80% a year ago, according to the trading group Airlines for America.
The short-term outlook remains dire for other travel-related companies, including those dependent on winter tourism.
In the ski country of Vermont, the Trapp Family Lodge in Stowe is usually sold out during Christmas week, but only half of the 96 rooms were booked last week. It was a story similar to the nearby Lodge at Spruce Peak. Operators at both cabins blamed travel restrictions, especially quarantine requirements that are activated when crossing state lines.
“It’s frustrating as a company to basically ban your work and not be able to support your employees or your community,” said Sam von Trapp, executive vice president of the family home. “At the same time, we understand that there are very good intentions behind all these restrictions.”
Cruises usually get the highest prices for Christmas and other holidays when kids don’t go to school, but few boats sail this season. Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Norwegian and Disney have canceled US cruises until February 28th. Trips to other parts of the world have been delayed mainly.
Florida, which is heavily dependent on winter tourism, is also experiencing great success. The two-week period around Christmas is usually the busiest time of Walt Disney World in Orlando, says Len Testa, president of TouringPlans.com, which plans to attend the park. But this year, the Magic Kingdom has limited park attendance to 35%, so Testa is only expecting about 32,000 people those days.
Testa also expects crowd levels to be lower than usual from January to March, with many visitors rescheduling their trips in May or later.
“Many families will postpone their spring break trips until they get vaccinated,” he said.
Tara Kelley planned to drive seven hours from her home in Milligan, Florida, to Orange City, Florida, to visit her mother and stepfather for Christmas. But Kelley’s wife had surgery recently and spent a day in a hospital where there was a risk of coronavirus exposure, so they suspended the trip.
“We had literally planned it since February,” Kelley said. “It’s a blow.”
Theresa Medina, a 55-year-old retiree from South Boston, is still deciding whether she and her husband will visit her mother in the Dominican Republic this winter. She is 80% sure they will and she is already preparing a box to ship before her arrival. But the couple plans to talk to her husband’s doctor in January.
If they go, Medina said they will undergo coronavirus testing and wear protective equipment, including face shields and masks.
“We may look silly on the plane, but precautions are precautions,” he said.
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Lisa Rathke in Montpelier, Vermont, Wilson Ring in Stowe, Vermont, and David McHugh in Frankfurt, Germany, contributed to this report.
David Koenig can be contacted at www.twitter.com/airlinewriter
Dee-Ann Durbin can be contacted at www.twitter.com/deeanndurbin_ap