If you are reading this article, there is a good chance you have made it to the fantasy final of your league. It’s doing very well so far, but there are still decisions to be made about training. If you’re in the final, you probably have a good team, so your best bet may be to start the WRs that take you there. You can’t go wrong with the initial receivers that have been productive all year. If they fail in week 16, it’s unfortunate, but the process is more important than the outcome.
DK Metcalf could add less than five fantasy points this week. Darnell Mooney could score more than 20. Starting Metcalf on Mooney will always be the right move regardless of the outcome. This final article can help you make boundary decisions and deeper leagues.
The collection of this data and the writing of this article each week has made it clear that while confrontations are important, a receiver’s talent and target share are more important than their opposition in many cases.
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Graphic details
The CB Matchup chart shown below is a snapshot of each team’s corner group in terms of allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws in the compilation of corner playback data. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 match in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverage, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a corner is not a perfect science. The purpose of this chart is to give a more general idea of how the defenses handle opposing WR groups, rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how each encounter occurred.
The “Rtng” column is the rating of each corner based on the study and analysis of films. The lower a player is ranked, the easier the match will be for the WR, so low scores are green and high scores are red. The “PPGA” is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could shade the WR1. A name in red means the player is suffering an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy combination. WRs highlighted in light red have a strong showdown. The graph is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start / settlement trap sheet.
Cornerback standings and matches: week 16
click on the image to see it in full size
WR / CB combinations for guidance
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will face the Falcons on Sunday. Atlanta’s defense is just a collapse of the second half from Tom Brady’s hand, and it won’t be easier against Muhammad. Tyreek Hill is the best WR play of the week. It’s hard to trust Sammy Watkins, but he could be a championship game hero. The same goes for Mecole Hardman.
Mike Evans and Antonio Brown get to the terrible outside corners of the Lions this Sunday. Expect Tom Brady to direct them early and often.
Jalen Hurts is arguably one of QB’s best plays this week against Dallas due to rushing up, but his receivers will likely have some success as well. Jalen Reagor is a better play than Alshon Jeffrey, but both are in good places.
Minnesota’s rookie corners have improved, but Tre’Quan Smith and Emmanuel Sanders can still take advantage of their inexperience at home with Drew Brees. The Vikings are better against slots, so Sanders is a better play than Smith.
Rashard Higgins, Michael Gallup and Darnell Mooney are three limit options in good places. They all have enough snapshots to be viable based on the other options.
Finally, the best slot matches this week include Kendrick Bourne vs. Arizona, Hunter Renfrow vs. Miami and Keenan Allen vs. Denver. Hopefully, Allen plays more snapshots this week.
WR / CB clashes to avoid
Calvin Ridley has been an elite fantasy WR this week and his QB will likely have to try more than 40 passes against the Chiefs. His confrontation is bad, but volume and talent are precedent. Julio Jones on the other hand, had a terrible day. If you have enough health to play, it’s a risky start.
The second round of DK Metcalf against Jalen Ramsey should be fun. Metcalf was shut down by Ramsey the last time these two teams met, as all of Seattle’s offense exploded. Rams ’defense somehow fought the Jets last week, so a Metcalf rebound is absolutely possible. Still, the Rams have been the toughest showdown for opposing WRs all year. Tyler Lockett is also in a tough spot against slot corner Troy Hill. Russ hasn’t cooked in a long time, and I’m not sure he’ll either this week.
Stefon Diggs is the third useless mention of WR1 in the avoid section of this article. Yes, he has a tough confrontation. Yes, you should still start it.
Jaire Alexander’s experience hasn’t been fun for the opposing RWRs this year. Corey Davis plays more on the right wing, so I hope he sees more of Alexander. If the Packers choose to overshadow AJ Brown, goals and production would be affected. I think Alexander will stay at Davis, but we won’t know until Sunday night.
This week, two WR Panthers receive degradations, with Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel projected to face the toughest clashes of the Washington defense.
Christian Kirk, Jerry Jeudy, Darius Slayton and Laviska Shenault Jr. they have been disappointing fantasy players this year. All four have tough clashes and probably shouldn’t start this week.
Finally, KJ Hamler and Keelan Cole Sr. they have two time slots in difficult clashes. Hopefully, you won’t have to consider them anyway.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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