- The most contagious COVID-19 strains in the UK and South Africa are already spreading through dozens of US states.
- New strains threaten to hamper what has been a huge step forward in the battle to reduce the rate of coronavirus infection.
- New COVID-19 infections have dropped significantly in recent weeks and have fallen 43% in the last two weeks alone.
Over the past twelve months, the coronavirus pandemic has caused unprecedented destruction in the United States. To date, the U.S. has seen nearly 28 million coronavirus infections and more than 490,000 COVID-related deaths.
The good news, however, is that we are finally beginning to see marked progress in the effort to defeat the coronavirus once and for all. For starters, the COVID infection rate has dropped 43% in just the last two weeks. In fact, the COVID infection rate today is about as low as it has been so far in October. In addition, coronavirus-related hospitalizations and deaths have dropped more than 30% in the past two weeks.
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Beyond that, the vaccination effort against COVID, after a slow start, is currently moving faster than many health experts predicted. Although the initial goal was to administer one million doses of vaccine each day, the U.S. currently makes an average of 1.6 million doses of vaccine per day. Think about it: from last Thursday to Sunday, an average of 1.9 doses of vaccine were given each day.
All in all, there is finally a reason to be optimistic that the coronavirus pandemic will be nothing more than a distant memory for this time next year. Still, it’s important to remember that we’re not out of the woods yet. Despite an encouraging drop in the infection rate and a promising vaccination effort, new COVID strains in the UK and South Africa have many health experts concerned.
As you’ve probably heard by now, the new COVID strains from the UK and South Africa are 50% more contagious than the original strain because they are believed to cause longer periods of infection.
A recent Harvard study notes:
These data provide evidence that SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 may cause longer-term infections with a similar peak viral concentration compared to non-B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2, and this extended duration may contribute to B.1.1. .7 Increased SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility. The conclusions are preliminary, as they are based on seven cases B.1.1.7. However, if confirmed with additional data, a longer isolation period than recommended 10 days after the onset of symptoms may be necessary to effectively stop secondary infections by this variant.
Both strains are already in the U.S. and some experts believe the UK strain could become dominant as early as next month.
Even more problematic is that the South African strain is slightly more resistant to existing COVID-19 vaccines. It is also speculated that both strains are more deadly than the original.
In light of the above, Dr. Fauci warns that people should follow existing safety guidelines for coronavirus, as new strains can cause massive outbreaks.
“The number of cases is declining in a fairly sharp downward trajectory right now,” Fauci said. “This can turn around and go in the wrong direction if we have a predominance of a virus that has a better degree of transmissibility. This varying situation dominates the image a bit.”
At this point, there is almost a race to vaccinate as many Americans as possible before the most contagious COVID-19 strains become dominant. Of course, the vaccination effort itself is hampered by two variables: a limited supply of vaccines and a general distrust of the COVID-19 vaccine itself.
Up to this point, Fauci said:
But when you have a certain level of vaccine hesitation in the community at large (vaccine deniers, skeptics, or doubters), we have no good mechanism for vaccinating the general public. You can do this in schools or hospitals. Elsewhere, this is really a problem.
To achieve the herd’s immunity, it is estimated that between 75 and 80% of the country will have to be vaccinated, that is, about 260 million people. To date, about 41 million Americans have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, meaning it may take a few more months to achieve herd immunity.
The good news is that Johnson & Johnson’s unique COVID-19 vaccine could receive an emergency use authorization from the FDA later this month. If this happens, the supply of COVID-19 vaccine doses to the US would increase significantly and help accelerate the vaccination effort.
A lifelong Mac enthusiast and Apple enthusiast, Yoni Heisler has been writing about Apple and the tech industry in general for over 6 years. His writings have appeared in Edible Apple, Network World, MacLife, Macworld UK and, more recently, in TUAW. When not writing and analyzing recent events with Apple, Yoni enjoys taking Improv programs in Chicago, playing football, and cultivating new addictions to TV shows, the most recent examples being The Walking Dead and Broad City.