Ethiopian troops and their allies in the sudden northern province of Tigray are facing a growing insurgency fueled by a series of massacres and other violence against civilians.
The country’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, launched a military offensive four months ago to “restore the rule of law” by ousting the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the ruling political party in the province, after rising tensions and a surprise attack on a federal army base.
Despite government claims of a significant improvement in the security situation in recent weeks, tens of thousands of Ethiopian troops and soldiers sent by neighboring Eritrea to support Addis Ababa’s military operations appear to be facing a backlash. continued resistance.
Mekelle, the provincial capital, is relatively quiet, but there are reports of fighting elsewhere. About a third of the province may remain out of government control.
A series of fierce clashes took place in mid-February around Samre, a small town 40 km southwest of Mekelle, while thousands of Ethiopian troops backed by artillery, tanks and airstrikes fought forces loyal to the TPLF.
Residents in Adigrat, northeast of Tigray, say they have heard heavy guns firing for days on the city’s hills. Similar reports came from the city of Adwa at a major strategic junction near the border with Eritrea and many other places.
There are also reports of ambushes and other clashes in central and western Tigray, but with strict restrictions on the media and reduced communications in most of the province, it is difficult to confirm the details.
In its most recent report on conditions in Tigray, the UN said intensified fighting had been reported across the province.
Abiy declared war ended in December after the TPLF leadership evacuated Mekelle and a loyal interim administration was installed in Addis Ababa. The TPLF suffered heavy casualties in the conflict and lost much of its military equipment.
Since then, however, it appears to have regrouped. Several TPLF leaders have been captured, but others remain in mountainous areas and have been able to contact analysts, media and supporters outside Ethiopia in recent days.
Getachew K Reda, former Minister of the TPLF, has sent a series of tweets from an unknown location earlier this week, the first since November, and TPLF president Gebretsion Debremichael gave an interview to CNN.
Revolution
The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) overthrows Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam, the head of a communist junta that has ruled the country since 1974. The coalition group is led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF ), guerrillas who left their homeland. in northern Ethiopia to the capital, Addis Ababa.
Proclaimed Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
The EPRDF comes to power in a little-disputed election and TPLF leader Meles Zenawi becomes Ethiopia’s prime minister. Tigrayans dominate senior government officials.
Ethnic federalism
Meles introduces a system that offers the country’s main ethnic groups the possibility of governing the areas where they dominate. Although tigrayans make up about 5% of the population, they benefit disproportionately, according to other regions, as roads and other infrastructure are being built in their sparsely populated area.
Meles dies
The prime minister dies in office and is appointed a successor to another ethnic group.
ERPDF divided
In the EPRDF, divisions erupt over the speed with which political reforms are being carried out in response to street protests threatening the coalition’s takeover.
Abiy Ahmed comes to power
Abiy Ahmed, an Oromo, takes over as prime minister, earning praise at home and abroad for opening one of Africa’s most restrictive political and economic systems.
Repressions
Tigrayans complain that they are being persecuted for a crackdown on corruption and past abuses. Former senior military and political officials are on trial.
Peace Prize
Abiy receives the Nobel Peace Prize for his peacekeeping efforts, which ended two decades of hostility with Eritrea. The TPLF continues to see Eritrea as an enemy.
Divisions
Ethiopia’s ruling coalition agrees to form a single party, but the TPLF refuses to merge with three other ethnic-based parties, and considers the move to be swift and undemocratic.
Electoral row
Tigray is holding regional elections challenging the federal government, which postponed national polls scheduled for August because of the Covid-19. The Abiy government says the vote is illegal.
Retained funds
The federal government is beginning to withhold some funds for social welfare programs in Tigray, part of a plan to starve the regional authorities in cash in retaliation for the vote.
The fight breaks out
Abiy sends troops to Tigray, accusing the TPLF of attacking federal troops based in the region. The TPLF accuses Abiy of punishing the region for the September vote. Reuters
U.S. and European intelligence officials have been closely monitoring the fighting for Samre, looking for indicators of the intensity and possible future course of the fighting in Tigray.
One said the battle suggested a “complex, dynamic and chaotic” contest was being held. The TPLF “was hit pretty hard in the first few months and it took a while to recover. Now it looks like they have reunited,” the official said.
Samre, a group of houses with a steel roof and a market on a plateau, has been exchanging hands repeatedly since mid-November. When TPLF forces last withdrew in mid-February, much of the population also fled and suffered casualties from airstrikes and artillery bombardment, according to residents. Government troops would then have emptied the grain warehouses and destroyed the orchards in retaliation for people’s support for the TPLF.
Map of Tigray
Local sources reported Wednesday that Eritrean soldiers in the city had told the rest of the civilians that support for TPLF forces would be severely punished. According to an unconfirmed account, the soldiers threatened to amputate a hand and a foot, a reference to a punishment that nineteenth-century Ethiopian kings imposed on traitors in wartime.
A senior TPLF leader said his military commanders had been told not to occupy positions that would make them vulnerable to the superior firepower of federal forces, particularly in rural areas.
“The landscape is crucial,” said Wolbert Smidt, a German historian and ethnographer who has lived and researched in Ethiopia for decades, mostly in Tigray. “The population is largely rural, with roads and communication networks known only locally. That is why the governments of the past have never been able to establish effective control without a certain degree of recognition of local autonomy.
Massacres and other human rights abuses motivate many young Tigrayans to take up arms, independent observers and TPFL officials told the Guardian.
Incidents include the killing of up to 700 people at a famous religious site in Axum and another 164 in Dengolat, a village in northern Tigray. Atrocities have also been attributed to Tigrayan forces. Hundreds of people were killed in a massacre blamed on a TPLF-linked militia in Mai Kadra in early November.
On Friday, Human Rights Watch said the Axum massacre came after members of the Tigrinya militia, along with some residents, attacked Eritrean soldiers. The Eritreans called for reinforcements, then began to look for young men and boys and executed them.
“He [Tigrayan] young people are very angry. Until recently, [the TPLF] he could not train or arm all the volunteers who approached them … In recent days they have been told to run again, “said a TPLF administrative official who fled Tigray to a neighboring province and who is in touch with his former colleagues.
William Davison, an Ethiopian analyst at the International Crisis Group, said there were multiple stories of young people joining the TPLF military wing as news of atrocities spread. “There seems to be an almost unanimous outrage … It’s very difficult to say how big the rebel force is, but all the indicators suggest that labor is not a problem,” he said.
Anger among the Tigrayans has been reinforced by attacks on places of enormous cultural importance in the province. Orientation to sacred shelters, which had also been sacrosanct, has also pushed those fleeing violence to seek TPLF-controlled areas, suggesting messages that local residents pass on to relatives outside Tigray.
Michelle Bachelet, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said Thursday that her office had corroborated serious violations that could lead to war crimes and crimes against humanity in Tigray.
Most of the massacres reported so far occurred in November or December last year, but there is evidence that they continued until January. Between 150 and 300 young people were reported killed in a village near Dela, south of Samre, during fighting about six weeks ago.
Although the details of the incident are unclear, relatives of the victims have contacted friends and supporters in Europe, telling them that after clashes with TPLF fighters, government soldiers went rounded men of combat age and shot many in the fields. After the recovery of Samre in mid-February, it appears that fires were caused to destroy more than 500 structures near the city.
Other images suggest similar burning of houses anywhere else in Tigray, such as along the border with Eritrea.
There is also widespread concern about attacks on women and children and ongoing sexual violence. Patients at Ayder Referral Hospital in Mekelle have included about 120 survivors of sexual violence, some reported group rapes by soldiers. “It simply came to our notice then. Our sisters suffer, ”said a doctor who worked with rape survivors and asked that they not be named for fear of reprisals.
Eritrean officials have described the allegations of massacres of their soldiers as “scandalous lies.” The Ethiopian government said on Wednesday that federal officials were investigating “credible allegations of atrocities and serious human rights abuses” and would ensure accountability.
“Ethiopia rejects any partisan intervention and politically motivated campaigns against the country and the government, aimed at undermining the measures of the rule of law it has taken and will continue to take to justice the criminal clique and other perpetrators,” he said. ‘states in the statement.
Davison described the dispute as “probably not win-win for either party.” “If people put the pieces back together, they have to find a way to start a political process,” he said.