VATICAN CITY (PA) – Infectious disease experts express concern over Pope Francis’ upcoming trip to Iraq, given a sharp rise in coronavirus infections there, a fragile health system and the inescapable likelihood that Iraqis pile up to see him.
No one wants to tell Francis that the annulment and the Iraqi government has every interest in showing its relative stability by welcoming the first pope to Abraham’s birthplace. The March 5-8 trip is expected to provide much-needed spiritual impetus to the besieged Christians in Iraq as they propelled Vatican bridge-building efforts with the Muslim world.
But from a purely epidemiological point of view, as well as the public health message it sends, a papal trip to Iraq in the midst of a global pandemic is not recommended, according to health experts.
His concerns were reinforced by the news on Sunday that the Vatican ambassador to Iraq, the main person on the trip that Francis would have escorted on all his appointments, tested positive for COVID-19 and isolated himself.
In an email to The Associated Press, the embassy said Archbishop Mitja Leskovar’s symptoms were mild and that he was still preparing for Francis’ visit.
Beyond their case, experts point out that wars, economic crises and the exodus of Iraqi professionals have devastated the country’s hospital system, while studies show that most of Iraq’s new COVID-19 infections they are the highly contagious variant first identified in Britain.
“I don’t think it’s a good idea,” said Dr. Navid Madani, a virologist and founding director of the Center for Science Health Education in the Middle East and North Africa, at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute in the Middle East. Harvard Medical School.
Madani, of Iranian descent, co-authored an article in The Lancet last year about the region’s unequal response to COVID-19, noting that Iraq, Syria and Yemen were ill-placed to front, as they are still struggling with extremist insurrections and have 40 million people in need of humanitarian aid.
In a telephone interview, Madani said Middle Eastern countries are known for their hospitality and warned that enthusiasm among Iraqis for hosting a peace maker like Francis in an abandoned and devastated part of the world by war could lead to involuntary violations of virus control measures. .
“This can potentially lead to unsafe or large-scale risks,” he said.
Dr. Bharat Pankhania, an expert in infectious disease control at Exeter University College of Medicine, agreed.
“It’s a perfect storm to generate a lot of cases that you won’t be able to deal with,” he said.
Organizers promise to enforce mask warrants, social distancing and crowd limits, as well as the possibility of increasing test sites, two Iraqi government officials said.
Healthcare protocols are “critical, but manageable,” a government official told The Associated Press, speaking on condition of anonymity.
And the Vatican has taken its own precautions: the 84-year-old pope, his 20-member Vatican entourage and the more than 70 journalists on the papal plane, all vaccinated.
But Iraqi meetings in the north, center, and south of the country to attend Francis ’indoor and outdoor masses, listen to his speeches, and participate in his prayer meetings are not vaccinated.
And that, scientists say, is the problem.
“We are in the middle of a global pandemic. And it’s important to get the right messages out, “Pankhania said.” The right messages are: the fewer interactions with other humans, the better. “
He questioned the view of the inoculation of the Vatican delegation, while Iraqis are not, and noted that Iraqis would only take these risks to go to these events because the pope was there.
Speaking to Vatican officials and the media, he said: “You are all protected from serious illness. Therefore, if you become infected, you will not die. But people who come to see you can become infected and die.”
“Is it prudent in this circumstance that it only appears? And because it shows up, people show up to see you and get infected? ” he asked.
The World Health Organization was diplomatic when asked about the wisdom of a papal trip to Iraq, saying countries should assess the risk of an event against the infection situation and then decide if it should be postponed.
“It’s all about managing that risk,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO technical director of COVID-19. “It’s about looking at the epidemiological situation in the country and then making sure that if this event happens, it can happen in the safest way possible.”
Francis has said he intends to go even if most Iraqis have to watch him on television to prevent infections. The important thing, he told the Catholic News Service, is that “they will see that the pope is in his country.”
Francis has frequently called for equitable distribution of vaccines and respect for government health measures, although he tends not to wear masks. Francis has avoided for months even socially distanced public viewers at the Vatican to limit the possibility of contagion.
Dr. Michael Head, a senior researcher in global health at the University of Southampton School of Medicine, said the number of new daily cases in Iraq “is increasing significantly at this time,” with the Ministry of Health reporting some 4,000 a day, near the height of its first wave in September.
Head said that for any trip to Iraq, there must be effective infection control practices in place, including masks, hand washing, social distancing and good ventilation in indoor spaces.
“Hopefully, we will see proactive approaches to infection control during the pope’s visit to Baghdad,” he said.
The Iraqi government imposed a modified blockade and curfew in mid-February amid a new rise in cases, closing schools and mosques and leaving restaurants and cafes open just to take away. But the government decided not to stop completely because of the difficulty of implementing it and the financial impact on the battered Iraqi economy, Iraqi officials told AP.
Many Iraqis remain lax in the use of masks and some doubt the severity of the virus.
Madani, the Harvard virologist, urged travel organizers to let science and data guide their decision-making.
A decision to reschedule or postpone the papal trip or move it to a virtual format “would be quite shocking from the point of view of world leadership,” because “it would indicate prioritizing the security of the Iraqi public,” he said.
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Kullab reported from Baghdad. Jamey Keaten in Geneva contributed.
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