Following the Taliban’s acquisition, concerns are growing about the U.S. counterterrorism capability

WASHINGTON, Aug 25 (Reuters) – With no US troops or reliable partners, empty prisons of militants and Taliban in control, doubts are growing in President Joe Biden’s administration about Washington’s ability to curb resurgence of al-Qaeda and other extremists in Afghanistan, six current and former US officials told Reuters.

The Afghan security forces that the United States helped form formed collapsed as Taliban militants headed for Afghanistan in less than two weeks, leaving the United States with few partners on the ground.

“We’re not in a good place,” said a U.S. defense officer, who asked for anonymity to discuss the issue.

Weeks before the twentieth anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks on al-Qaeda against the United States, the lack of visibility on possible extremist threats is a chilling prospect for officials.

U.S.-led forces overthrew the Taliban in 2001 for taking refuge in al-Qaeda militants, leading to America’s longest war.

The departure of US troops ordered by Biden on August 31 and the subsequent collapse of the Afghan security forces have stripped the protection of the CIA and other spy agencies, forcing them to close bases and also withdraw personnel. .

The Biden administration cannot rely on neighboring countries because so far it has not been able to agree on bases for U.S. counterterrorism forces and drones, officials said.

This has left Washington dependent on conducting U.S.-based counterterrorism operations in the Gulf and relying on the Taliban to adhere to the 2020 U.S. withdrawal agreement to stop militant attacks on the United States and the United States. his allies.

But it is a costly endeavor. Flying military planes out of the Middle East, Washington’s closest military center in the region, could ultimately cost more than the 2,500 troops that had been in Afghanistan until earlier this year, officials added. .

Even deploying scarce U.S. resources to control militants in Afghanistan will have to compete effectively with the administration’s key priority in Asia to fight China.

The Group of Seven Industrialized Nations made it a priority for Afghanistan’s new Taliban rulers to sever all ties with terrorist organizations and for the Taliban to engage in the fight against terrorism, a senior official said on Tuesday. the French presidency after a meeting of G7 leaders.

“Serious disadvantage”

U.S. military leaders estimated in June that groups like al-Qaeda could pose a threat from Afghanistan to the U.S. homeland in two years.

But the Taliban’s takeover made that estimate obsolete, officials said.

Nathan Sales, coordinator of the State Department for Counterterrorism until January, estimated that it would now take Al Qaeda six months to rebuild the ability to conduct external operations.

The Taliban released hundreds of detainees from prisons, raising fears that some could include extremist leaders.

While the Taliban vowed to keep its commitment to prevent Al Qaeda from conspiring international attacks from Afghanistan, experts questioned that promise.

Daniel Hoffman, the CIA’s former head of covert Middle East operations, expressed doubt that the Taliban would restrict al-Qaeda, pointing to its decades-old ties and shared ideologies.

“The country is a Petri dish of threats: ISIS, al-Qaeda and the Taliban. They all have us in the spotlight,” he said.

Biden said the United States will closely monitor militant groups in Afghanistan and has the ability to track and neutralize growing threats.

But he erroneously said last week that al-Qaeda had “disappeared” from the country, confusing U.S. officials.

His national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said Monday that Biden was referring to Al Qaeda’s ability to attack the United States from Afghanistan.

A number of UN reports say hundreds of al-Qaeda fighters and leaders remain in Afghanistan under Taliban protection.

U.S. military planners say some satellites and planes that can fly from bases in Qatar and the UAE may gather some information. But they recognize that these operations are costly.

“Our intelligence community and our military operators will be at a severe disadvantage in trying to identify where these al-Qaeda cells are, what they are planning and it will be incredibly difficult to get them off the battlefield.” , said Sales.

In 2015, U.S. military officers learned of the surprise that Al Qaeda was operating a mass training camp in the southern province of Kandahar. This happened with thousands of U.S. and coalition troops in Afghanistan.

“Even when we had ground forces and very solid air coverage, we would often be surprised at what Al Qaeda could do,” said Kathryn Wheelbarger, a senior Pentagon official.

Pakistan has said it will not host U.S. troops and Central Asian countries are reluctant to accept U.S. requests because of concerns that it may anger Russia.

“I just don’t think the horizon can work, especially in Afghanistan,” Wheelbarger said, referring to counterterrorism efforts outside of Afghanistan.

Reports by Idrees Ali, Humeyra Pamuk and Jonathan Landay; Edited by Mary Milliken and Peter Cooney

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