The Taliban have defeated the United States and the Afghan-backed government after a 20-year guerrilla war. Most analysts had predicted the victory of the Taliban after the US withdrawal, but have been surprised by the speed with which it occurred. This is the second taste of the Taliban in power after their stint in 1996-2001. The following is how this time may be different from the first and what it means for India:
How will the Taliban government be different from its first stage in power?
In 1996, the Taliban were more or less isolated on the world stage, only Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates recognized it. This time, it’s different. After ousting the Ashraf Ghani government, the Taliban are claiming legitimacy to return to power. While Pakistan and China are clearly prepared to recognize a Taliban government in Afghanistan, Russia also indicated that the return of the militant organization to power in Kabul is a reality it will have to work with. The United States and Europe also seem to be reluctant to reconcile with this reality. This gives the Taliban the advantage it lacked last time, with access to relations and funding that would allow it to run the country. On the other hand, the world has changed since 1996. Afghans have access to social media, the Internet and have tasted some elements of freedoms – women’s rights, for example – that would make it difficult for the Taliban to return to shape. more brutal. of Islamic rule. Finally, the Taliban are aware that a lack of respect for human rights would lead to a denial of the help and experience it needs to run the country.
What has been India’s role in Afghanistan?
India has invested about $ 3 billion in development works, such as the construction of roads, schools and dams in Afghanistan over the past 20 years. It also financed the building of the Afghan parliament and, as a result, generated great influence with the Ghani government. The objectives of the investment were access to Baluchistan province, Pakistan, the development of land routes to the port of Chabahar in Iran, and Pakistan’s influence in the region. Now all these goals are in jeopardy. On the other hand, these gestures have pleased India to the Afghan people, as opposed to Pakistan, which has supported the brutal Taliban. This gives India a continued advantage among the population.
What has India done since the US withdrawal?
India has been slow to engage with the Taliban and has been reluctant to speak out or recognize the de facto Taliban government. Even when all countries, including the United States, politically legitimized the Taliban by speaking openly to them, Indian political leaders still hesitated until the last moment. This is because in New Delhi it was difficult to bet on a full-fledged commitment to the Taliban and publicly acknowledge it, as it is, after all, a Pakistani project against India. Now, however, India has no choice but to commit to the Taliban as they have control of the country.
What does the Taliban victory mean for India?
The victory of the Taliban, at least in the face, is a great triumph for Pakistan and a major setback for India. Pakistan’s Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) has supported the Taliban since the group’s inception in the mid-1990s, and the Taliban have links to the Lashkar-e-Taiba, which carried out the attacks. of Mumbai from 2008. But this time it may be different. While still heavily dependent on Pakistan, the Taliban this time have gained acceptance from the international community and have therefore gained some degree of independence. Its foreign policy may also show a similar degree of independence, as it may require Indian and foreign aid and aid for reconstruction. This may prevent LeT and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) from using Afghanistan as a launching pad to launch attacks in Kashmir.