“A biological Fukushima”: the deaths of Brazil’s COVID-19 on its way to the worst of the American wave

RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) – Brazil’s brutal rise in COVID-19 deaths will soon surpass the worst January wave in the United States, scientists say, with fatalities rising above 4,000 for the first time in a this Tuesday as an outbreak overwhelms hospitals.

The overall death toll in Brazil only tracks the U.S. outbreak, with about 337,000 deaths, according to Health Ministry data, compared to more than 555,000 deaths in the United States.

But with the Brazilian health care system at the breaking point, the country could surpass the total death toll in the U.S., despite having a two-thirds population of the U.S. population, two experts told Reuters.

“It is a nuclear reactor that has caused a chain reaction and is out of control. It’s a biological Fukushima, ”said Miguel Nicolelis, a Brazilian doctor and professor at Duke University who is closely monitoring the virus.

On Tuesday, the Ministry of Health reported 4,195 deaths from COVID-19 in the past 24 hours, well above the country’s previous single-day record. Brazil has set daily death records every week since late February, as a more contagious local variant and meager social distancing efforts fuel an uncontrolled outbreak.

With massive vaccines reducing the U.S. outbreak, Brazil has become the epicenter of the pandemic, contributing approximately one in four deaths a day worldwide, according to a Reuters analysis.

President Jair Bolsonaro has rejected protection against wearing masks and blockades that public health experts consider the best way to slow down virus transmission.

Last year the country dragged its feet as the world rushed to secure vaccines, which slowed the launch of a national vaccination program.

Despite the recent increase, Brazilian officials insist the country may soon return to something that resembles the usual business.

“We believe that probably in two, three months Brazil could return to business,” Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said during an online event on Tuesday. “Of course, economic activity is likely to go down, but it will be much, much less than what we suffered last year … and much, much shorter.”

Bolsonaro has responded to growing political pressure with a dramatic shake-up of half a dozen ministries, placing loyalists in key roles ahead of what could be a tough re-election campaign next year against his political enemy.

Although the president has changed his tone about vaccinations, announcing the vaccines he had recently scorned, the former far-right army captain continues to fight in the courts against state and municipal restrictions on economic activity.

With the weak measures that fail to combat the contagion, the cases and deaths of Brazil COVID-19 are accumulating faster than ever.

Nicolelis and Christovam Barcellos, a researcher at the Brazilian medical institute Fiocruz, predict separately that Brazil could surpass the United States in both global deaths and the average daily deaths record.

As early as next week, Brazil may break the seven-day average death toll from COVID-19 in the United States, according to a model from the influential Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. The U.S. average of daily deaths peaked at 3,285 in January.

The IHME forecast currently does not extend beyond July 1, when it predicts that Brazil could reach 563,000 deaths, compared to the 609,000 total deaths in the United States that were expected by then.