NEW DELHI (Reuters) – India’s and Pakistan’s top intelligence officials held secret talks in Dubai in January in a new effort to calm military tensions over the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, they said. tell Reuters in Delhi people with a close knowledge of the issue.
Ties between nuclear-armed rivals have been on ice since a suicide bombing of an Indian military convoy in Kashmir in 2019 met with Pakistan-based militants who led India to send warplanes to Pakistan.
Later that year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi withdrew Indian-ruled Kashmir autonomy in order to tighten territory, sparking outrage in Pakistan and the degradation of diplomatic ties and the suspension of bilateral trade.
But the two governments have reopened a new diplomacy channel aimed at a modest roadmap to normalize ties over the coming months, the people said.
Kashmir has long been a hotbed between India and Pakistan, both claiming the entire region, but only ruling in part.
Two people said officials from India’s research and analysis wing, the external intelligence agency, and Pakistan’s inter-service intelligence traveled to Dubai for a meeting facilitated by the UAE government. United Arabs.
The Indian Foreign Ministry did not respond to any requests for comment. The Pakistani army, which controls the ISI, did not respond either.
But Ayesha Siddiqa, a senior Pakistani defense analyst, said she believed intelligence officials from India and Pakistan had met for several months in third countries.
“I think there have been meetings in Thailand, in Dubai, in London between people of a higher standard,” he said.
‘IS FRAGGED’
These meetings have also taken place in the past, especially in times of crisis, but have never been publicly acknowledged.
“There are a lot of things that can go wrong, it’s full,” said one of the people in Delhi. “That’s why no one speaks publicly, we don’t even have a name for it, it’s not a peace process. You can call it a new commitment, ”one of them said.
Both countries have reason to seek an approach. India has been locked in a border clash with China since last year and does not want the military to extend to the Pakistani front.
Pakistan, allied with China, plunged into economic hardship and into an IMF bailout program, could badly afford the increased tensions on the Kashmir border for an extended period, experts say. It must also stabilize the Afghan border to its west when the United States withdraws.
“It’s better for India and Pakistan to talk than not to talk and even better to do it in silence than in an advertising look,” said Myra MacDonald, a former Reuters journalist who has just published a book on ‘India, Pakistan and the war on the borders of Kashmir.
“… But I don’t see it going far beyond basic tension management, possibly to dizzy the two countries during a difficult period: Pakistan has to deal with the fall of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, while India has to deal with a much more volatile situation on its controversial border with China. “
PROVISION OF RHETRICS
Following the January meeting, India and Pakistan announced that they would stop firing cross-border along the Line of Control (LoC) that divides Kashmir, leaving dozens of civilians dead and many others maimed. This ceasefire is maintained, military officials in both countries said.
The two sides have also pointed to plans to hold elections to their Kashmir sides this year as part of efforts to bring normalcy to a region overflowing with decades of bloodshed.
The two have also agreed to mark their rhetoric, Reuters said.
This would include Pakistan letting go of its strong objections to Modi repealing Kashmir’s autonomy in August 2019, while Delhi, in turn, would refrain from blaming Pakistan for all the violence on its side of the line. control.
These details have not been previously reported. India has long blamed Pakistan for the Kashmir uprising, a denunciation denied by Pakistan.
“There is a recognition that there will be attacks inside Kashmir, there have been discussions on how to deal with it and not let that effort derail with the next attack,” one of the people said.
However, there is still no big plan to resolve the 74-year-old Kashmir dispute. Rather, both sides are trying to reduce tensions to pave the way for a broad compromise, all the people Reuters spoke to said.
“Pakistan is moving from a geostrategic domain to a geoeconomic domain,” Raoof Hasan, special assistant to Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, told Reuters.
“Peace, both inside and among the neighbors, is a key component in facilitating this.”
Reports of Sanjeev Miglani in New Delhi and Asif Shahzad in Islamabad; Edited by Nick Macfie