California Gov. Gavin Newsom makes a gesture while speaking at a press conference at the San Bernardino Unified School District Office after visiting San Bernardino Elementary School Juanita B. Jones on Friday, August 6 of 2021.
Watchara Phomicinda | MediaNews Group | Getty Images
The campaign to remember California Gov. Gavin Newsom lost so much momentum last month that bettors now say there is more than an 85% chance the effort will fail.
According to political betting website PredictIt, the Democrat’s chances of staying in office after the Sept. 14 withdrawal election hit a record high last week since early July.
On Thursday, a bet on a successful recovery (that is, a bet that Newsom would be kicked out) cost PredictIt 10 cents, down from 26 cents a week earlier and 34 cents in early August. As of Sunday, prices had risen slightly to 14 cents.
Correct bets on PredictIt that change to $ 1, so a 10-cent bet would win 90 cents in case the withdrawal prevails. According to PredictIt, the price of a bet in favor of a withdrawal has not closed below 10 cents. The campaign minimum was 8 cents, a few days earlier in May.
Newsom and the Democratic Party have tried to regain ground, as voting has shown greater Republican Party enthusiasm for voting in the withdrawal, even though California is a reliable blue state. The California governor has received impulses from celebrities and well-known politicians, such as Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Democrats return early voting at a much faster rate than Republicans.
Vice President Kamala Harris, a former California attorney general and former U.S. senator from the state, is due to campaign with Newsom this week. President Joe Biden, who is fighting a low poll after a troubled military exit from Afghanistan and the growing Covid-19 infection in much of the U.S., has said he will campaign for Newsom.
The governor’s reddest outlook in recent days is reflected in polls. The average of FiveThirtyEight polls shows Newsom with a 10.4 percentage point advantage over the recovery effort (53% to 42.6%), compared to 5.6 points at the end of August. A poll last week by the California Institute of Public Policy said 58% of likely voters would vote against the withdrawal.
The recovery effort gained momentum during the Covid pandemic, as critics of the state’s aggressive closures, school closures and growing crime expressed dissatisfaction. Some technology-rich companies and executives and investors also left California and headed to states with lower tax rates.
Newsom delivered a gift to his opponents in November. With the pandemic still in full swing and business closed, photos of an unmasked Newsom attending a party at the high-end French Laundry restaurant in the Napa Valley appeared. By April of this year, the withdrawal had acquired 1.6 million signatures, surpassing the number needed to activate the election.
Newsom fans have turned down cash and flooded California waves late to try to defend the challenge. According to CALmatters, opponents of the withdrawal have raised $ 68.9 million, or six times the amount the pro-withdrawal side earned.
If more than half of the voters answered “yes” to the withdrawal, the next governor will be the one with the most votes of the 46 substitute candidates in the second half of the vote.
The betting markets do not have much confidence in any of them.
Bets on Larry Elder, a conservative radio show presenter, fell to 13 cents from 25 cents on Aug. 24. A bet by YouTube star and real estate entrepreneur Kevin Paffrath, who acts as a Democrat, costs 4 cents, up from 13 cents in mid-August. None of the other candidates exceeds 1 cent.
A Newsom bet to hold the concert dropped to 68 cents in early August. It now sells for 89 cents.
I’LL SEE: California Gov. Newsom recalls that organizers present signatures