Chris Hondros | Journalists | Getty Images
Investors are finally retiring from technology stocks after a decade of overruns.
For the fourth week in a row, the Nasdaq Composite, which has had a lot of technology, followed the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is the longest streak of its kind from April to May 2016, which was also the only year since 2011 that the Dow won on the Nasdaq.
Market experts predict a time of technological cooling for years and have been constantly wrong thanks to the growing dominance of mega-capitalization companies such as Apple and Amazon, the frenzy around Tesla and the massive shift in spending on cloud computing .
“It’s been years of frustration trying to make this trade right,” said Jack Ablin, who oversees $ 12.5 billion as Cresset’s chief investment officer.
Ablin said he feels different this time. Starting in the fourth quarter, his company launched a new “quality dividend strategy,” which moved technology customers to industrial, financial, materials and energy companies. He opted for a democratic balance sheet in November, followed by a large package of stimuli that would pump money into the economy, leading to higher inflation and interest rates.
President Joe Biden, with Vice President Kamala Harris (R), talks about the American rescue plan at the White House Rose Garden in Washington, DC, on March 12, 2021.
Olivier Douliery | AFP | Getty Images
The 10-year Treasury rose to its highest level in more than a year on Friday, reaching 1.642%. Rising rates give investors an incentive to shift money to fixed income, while inflation tends to have an excessive impact on growing firms as it lowers expectations of future profits.
Meanwhile, the $ 1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package signed by President Joe Biden on Thursday will send direct payments of $ 1,400 to most Americans, and will also expand the children’s tax credit and provide rental assistance and public services.
“Cumulative demand”
It adds to Biden’s statement that all adults will be eligible for a Covid-19 vaccine before May 1, and that the economy looks set for a big rebound in 2021.
“There’s accumulated demand to go out and do things, take vacations, go to bars and restaurants,” Ablin said. People “will take all that money aside and spend it,” he said.
While Biden and the Democratic Congress are focusing on expanding green energy alternatives, the current prospects for travel and return to work benefit traditional oil and gas companies. Within the S&P 500, energy stocks have the best performance this year, 40% more as a group. The best performing groups this week have been discretionary stocks, real estate and consumer utilities.
Dow Industrials rose 4.1% during the week and closed at a record 32,778.64. After three consecutive weeks of falls, the Nasdaq rose 3.1% to 13,319.87. For the year, the Dow has risen 7.1%, while the Nasdaq has gained 3.4%.
Dow vs. Nasdaq in 2021
CNBC
Ablin knows it’s too early for the return lap. Although the technology is underperforming, there is still a lot of money in even more speculative assets. Bitcoin has nearly doubled in value this year and on Wednesday a non-fungible testimonial (NFT) from artist Beeple was sold for more than $ 69 million in an auction through Christie’s.
Ablin said Thursday a customer asked him about NFT. While admitting he doesn’t have a strong point of view, he said that if recipients of stimulus money opt for risky investments instead of traveling and buying consumer goods, the market could look very different in the coming months.
“If it’s not really spent, but it is plowed into the market, that would take the carpet off our thesis,” Ablin said. For example, he said, “If instead of taking their vacation, they’re going to buy Tesla stock.”
Shares of Tesla have jumped 16% this week. But that was after falling 30% from the previous month.
I WILL SEE: NFTs see record prices as artists and Silicon Valley buy