“There is no evidence of a decline” in COVID-19 rates in England’s third blockade

LONDON (Reuters) – A third pandemic blockade appears to have little impact on COVID-19 rates in England, researchers warned on Thursday, with disease prevalence “very high” and “no evidence of decline” in early 10 days of renewed restrictions.

Until COVID-19 rates are substantially reduced, health services will “remain under extreme pressure” and the death toll will continue to rise rapidly, researchers at Imperial College’s REACT-1 prevalence study said London.

“The number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 (in the hospital) is extremely high right now and we can’t expect it to decrease if we don’t achieve lower prevalence levels,” said Steven Riley, a professor of infectious disease dynamics. who co-directed the play.

“The fact that (prevalence) does not decrease has potentially serious consequences”

Prime Minister Boris Johnson put England in a third national closure on 5 January, closing bars, restaurants and most schools and allowing only essential shops to open.

Ministers have called on people to stay at home as much as they can to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed and to give authorities time to deploy COVID-19 vaccines to the elderly and those most at risk.

But presenting his latest data, which runs from Jan. 6-15, Riley said prevalence rates were 1.58%, the highest recorded by the REACT-1 study since it began. in May 2020. This represents an increase of more than 50% since the last reading in mid-December.

Riley also warned not to set immediate hopes on COVID-19 shots.

“The vaccine will only have a very limited impact on short-term prevalence,” he told reporters.

Paul Elliott, an expert in epidemiology and public health medicine and director of the REACT program, said stubborn levels of COVID-19 infection could be in part due to a more transmissible variant of the virus that emerged late. from last year.

“We really need to double public health measures: wear facials, keep your distance and wash your hands,” Elliott said. “There will be continued pressure until we can reduce the prevalence.”

The British government on Wednesday reported a new record daily increase in deaths, with 1,820 people dying 28 days after the positive test of COVID-19. However, new infections (with 38,905) fell from the recent high of 68,053 on January 8th.

The Ministry of Health said the full impact of the closure would not yet be reflected in prevalence figures, but added that the survey highlighted the importance of everyone staying home and following the restrictions.