Variants increase in some states, adding urgency to the vaccine push

Photographer: Johnny Milano / Bloomberg

U.S. officials and public health experts are re-activating alarms about the resurgence of Covid-19 cases in some regions, and are especially concerned about the role variants are playing in states like Michigan and New Jersey.

The events could augur a long-feared possibility: that another increase could occur even if states open up eligibility criteria for the vaccine, trying to get shots in the arms as quickly as possible.

In Michigan and Minnesota, infections are rising rapidly and new hospital admissions for confirmed or suspected Covid cases are up about 70% and 32%, respectively, from recent lows, according to U.S. Department of Health and Human Services data. .

Meanwhile, the pace of daily admissions to Covid-19 Hospital has stopped falling in New York and New Jersey, despite the vaccine campaign, and has begun to rise.

The four states have vaccinated between 19% and 21% of their populations, in line with the United States as a whole, according to the Bloomberg vaccine tracker.

Another major outbreak could reduce the benefits of even widespread immunization in the United States, said Nicholas Reich, an associate professor at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, who works with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to better predict trajectory of the virus.

High Stakes

These concerns underscore the big bet of the vaccination campaign, and they occur as many states have been lifting restrictions after a prolonged and deadly fall in winter and winter. In addition to the emergence of more rapidly spreading variants, the combination of pandemic loosening and fatigue rules is likely to contribute, while events such as the spring break could have consequences in the coming weeks.

“We are in the last lap, the last lap of this stage of the race, and it seems that in some places the variants are moving forward, a bit. But it’s so close, “Reich said.” Four more weeks and I’m not sure they can get ahead. “

The CDC has named five variants as “variants of concern”: the UK strain B.1.1.7; P.1, from Brazil; B.1.351 from South Africa, as well as B.1.427 and B.1.429, both from California. Most are more transmissible and can hinder the degree of neutralization of the virus by drugs known as monoclonal antibodies. According to the CDC, B.1.1.7 also increases the severity of the disease.

Last week, the U.S. added about 55,000 new cases a day on average, about a fifth of the levels since the first week of January, although the number of confirmed infections increased from the previous week. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky noted the slight increase in a news session Monday and said the Northeast and Midwest are beginning to see more significant rises.

Meanwhile, hospital admissions are expanding nationwide, worrying because hospitalizations had steadily declined in January and February, he said. Deaths for Covid continue to fall, but the pace of that fall slowed last week, according to Walensky.

The latest numbers should “serve as a warning sign for the American people,” Walensky said. “The continued relaxation of prevention measures while cases are still high, and while these are variants, is rapidly spreading throughout the territory United States, is a serious threat to the progress we have made as a nation. “

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The resurgence in Michigan began in the ski areas before spreading more widely, said David Rubin, a physician and director of PolicyLab at Philadelphia Children’s Hospital, which has been modeling the spread of Covid-19 .

“It simply came to our notice then. This is more like Europe, ”said Rubin. “If this can happen in Michigan, I see no reason why it can’t happen in Illinois, which is only a few weeks behind, and in the New York metropolitan area.”

In New York City, senior health adviser Jay Varma, in a briefing Monday, said more contagious variants contribute to a plan in the cases and officials were “very concerned” about them.

Variants arise

The data suggest that B.1.1.7 is at least one of the culprits. In Michigan, the fastest-spread variant that emerged in early February probably accounts for about 55 percent of all cases, according to data from test company Helix. No one is checking enough variants to fully understand their prevalence, but Helix has been testing the failure of the S gene target in positive samples of Covid-19, which he says is a key feature of the variant first identified in the Kingdom. United

B.1.1.7 in Michigan

Percentage of samples with key characteristics of variant B.1.1.7

Source: Helix Covid-19 surveillance panel

The spread of more contagious variants like B.1.1.7 sparked the recent rise of Michigan in Covid cases, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said in a briefing on Friday. At the event, Joneigh Khaldun, the state’s chief medical officer and deputy chief health officer at the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, said confirmed infections have increased 77 percent since February and warned that the state “could be at the beginning of another wave.”

Lynn Sutfin, the department’s public information officer, said it was difficult to assess Helix’s data because the company had not been in direct contact.

“At this time, we do not have enough evidence to determine whether B.1.1.7 is the dominant variant in our state and we will need more scientific evidence to make that determination,” Sutfin said in an email response to the questions.

New Jersey State Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli also downplayed the threat of the variant, which said Monday in a Trenton virus update that there have been 400 reports of variants of concern from the CDC in the state, the vast majority of which were the B.1.1.7 variant, but added that “we have no variants considered of high consequence”.

“Multiple factors”

Variants are one of the “multiple factors at stake,” said Adam MacNeil, a CDC epidemiologist, adding that previous rises in the U.S. were not necessarily associated with new strains. He said that while B.1.1.7 has become prevalent, regional variations have also emerged, including another variant known as B.1.526 that takes off in the New York area and the prevalence of two Californian variants in the state.

Two variants to which the agency has been most concerned about circumventing vaccine efficacy (B.1.351 and P.1) remain rare in the United States, which is a good sign, MacNeil said.