It’s Christmas Eve, marking the start of what has traditionally been the best seven-day sprint for action of the year, also known as the “Santa Rally”. So far, stock futures indicate a promising start to this ritual, but as this market still belongs to 2020 for a few more days, anything could happen.
One of the events that may fall before Christmas is a post-Brexit trade deal. Investors are also seeing that $ 900 billion stimulus bill that President Donald Trump has indicated was unhappy.
To ours call of the day, which says get ready for 2021 and the “year of the V.” It comes from Vincent Deluard, the global macro-strategy for financial services group StoneX, whose V collection includes a still-furious virus that leads to “one last scare of deflation in the first quarter.”
Deluard warns of its brutal first three months of the year in its December bulletin, which predicts infections and deaths and record closures of COVID-19 on both sides of the Atlantic. He sees the terrible economic data for December and January trigger the sale of large cyclical gold and copper assets and central banks jump to avoid deflation.
But then there is relief in the second quarter, with vaccines triggering accumulated demand, leading to rapid reflation. This is in the midst of disrupted supply chains, demand for real estate returns, rising consumption due to record net worth and low debt maintenance costs, and then massive cuts in large spending budgets oil companies, which compressed the oil market.
Deluard’s great advice? “Investors should start accumulating cheap inflation-sensitive assets now. However, it may be prudent to hedge cyclical risks with first-quarter “antigrowth trade”: long gold, health care and the yen against a short position [bearish] in futures on oil, ”he said.
“In the second half, investors should focus on the best reflection and reopening operations: Latin American stocks (no hedging) and IBEX 35 index, respectively,” the strategist said.
Here are more of your Vs for 2021: valuations will be important, stock stocks will finally shine, volatility becomes the new normal, with the VIX or Cboe VIX volatility index,
which measures stock volatility, above 20 for much of the year. Below 20, markets are often not stressed. It also warns of vulnerable and overvalued bonds and many stocks and a bursting of the stock market bubble.
With those dear investors, have a happy and safe place little Christmas.
The markets
In a half day for the markets, the futures on YM00 shares,
ES00,
NQ00,
are higher, with European markets SXXP,
mixed. The GBPUSD pound,
is up and running and the FTSE 100 UKX,
below those hopes of the Brexit deal.
Read: This is what a Brexit deal means for the markets
Asian stocks ended mostly, except in China as Alibaba BABA,
fell when regulators launched an antitrust probe from the e-commerce group.
Read: What markets are open and when the holidays are over
The buzz
A post-Brexit trade deal between the UK and Europe may finally be here, following the marathon talks.
There may be good news on the COVID-19 front, as a couple of studies indicate that the infection could be protected against reinfection. This is how more than a million Americans have been vaccinated. Meanwhile, the UK is expanding its blockade as an even more contagious second strain spreads, believed to be native to South Africa.
Square SQ Digital Payments Group,
he has reportedly expressed interest in buying Tidal, Jay-Z’s music streaming service.
Nuro has become the first California-approved company to operate a driverless delivery business.
President Donald Trump issued more pardons on Wednesday, bringing it to nearly 50. Campaign President Paul Manafort and Charles Kushner, the father of his son-in-law Jared, are among the latest recipients.
The graph
Random readings
A digitally created queen bursts into a TikTok dance to make a point about the false depths
A “dragon” and a cure for cancer. What a mystic who predicted the attacks of 9/11 said about 2021
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