Gal Gadot plays Wonder Woman in “Wonder Woman 1984”.
Warner Bros.
Can a nostalgic superhero blow convince people to leave the couches and head to the movies? “Wonder Woman 1984” wants to answer that question.
Movie theater owners expect the “Wonder Woman” sequel, which arrives on Christmas Day, to bring a key demographic return to cinemas despite the continued rise in coronavirus cases.
But the ongoing pandemic is not his only concern. The same day “Wonder Woman 1984” debuts on the big screen, it will also be available to air on HBO Max.
“‘ Wonder Woman 1984 ’represents the first proof of a simultaneous big-screen / small-screen release of a title of this magnitude,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.
Box office analysts have mixed opinions about the film’s performance at the national box office. “Wonder Woman 1984” had a low performance last weekend in its international debut, grossing about $ 38.5 million. That was well below the $ 60 million the industry had projected.
The film could face even more difficulties in the United States and Canada, as only about 34% of theaters are open. They are about 2,000 theaters, according to Comscore.
“Putting a number on its possible opening weekend is difficult, as there really isn’t any directly comparable launch scenario,” Dergarabedian said. And the biggest opening weekend since the beginning of mid-March of the pandemic stop for movie theaters didn’t even overshadow the $ 10 million mark. “
It refers to “The Croods: A New Age,” a Dreamworks animated film that debuted for Thanksgiving. It had the highest premiere of any film released during the pandemic, weighing in at $ 9.7 million. Over the entire five-day Thanksgiving weekend totaled $ 14.2 million.
Still, there is a cumulative demand for “Wonder Woman 1984.” This could convince moviegoers to head to the big screen instead of watching the movie at home.
“We’re seeing‘ Wonder Woman 1984 ’drive the strongest ticket sales presale of any film in the pandemic era so far, but I’m cautiously leaning towards more than $ 10 million for the head of the week, given the number of theater closures, the one simultaneous broadcast release, “said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice.com. “A figure closer to $ 15 million could be reached, but now there is a great deal of unpredictability to consider.”
Robbins said premium screens like IMAX and Dolby Cinema will likely be some of the best performing sequels in the sequel as they offer higher quality sound and image. Private party rentals, where filmmakers rent a theater for a group of up to 20 friends and family, will also generate a good chunk of the box office.
In the last five years, the Christmas Day box office has generated at least $ 80 million for a single day. That figure will not be seen this year, according to analysts.
In non-pandemic times, “Wonder Woman 1984” could have opened between $ 100 million and $ 150 million, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter said. With so many theaters closed, the coronavirus threat and the film’s availability on HBO Max, Pachter predicted and opened between $ 15 million and $ 25 million.
“While many will choose to stay home this holiday and watch the film, fans and families in markets where they are safe and able to do so could result in a relatively fair number, albeit very far away. of what they would normally be for a box office opening superhero sequel for Christmas, ”Robbins said.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal owns Dreamworks Animation.