Gulf Arabs are concerned about the Taliban’s acquisition, but may seek pragmatic ties

A member of the Taliban forces patrols a checkpoint in Kabul, Afghanistan, on August 17, 2021. REUTERS / Stringer

  • The Saudis in the United Arab Emirates have adapted to the new status quo in Afghanistan
  • It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post
  • Saudi Arabia has complicated history with the Islamist Taliban
  • It could exert a religious and economic influence on the moderate Taliban
  • The Gulf fears that Afghanistan may re-emerge as a refuge for militants

DUBAI, Aug 20 (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, among the few that recognized the 1996-2001 Taliban radical government in Afghanistan, are likely to take a pragmatic approach to their return to power despite fears that it may strengthen Islam militant abroad.

Foreign diplomats and analysts said that while the Taliban ideology clashed with the campaign against militants in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and the recent easing of Islamic restrictions by Riyadh, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi would adapt to the realities after the shockingly rapid reconquest of the Taliban from Afghanistan as U.S.-led forces withdrew.

Gulf powers severed ties with the Taliban in September 2001 to “house terrorists” after planes hijacked by mostly Saudi al-Qaeda militants crashed into New York’s World Trade Center and the United States. Washington Pentagon and killed thousands.

Al-Riyadh had already frozen ties with the Taliban in 1998 over its refusal to hand over then-al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, who made his name by fighting the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s and was stripped of Saudi citizenship for attacks on the kingdom and activities against the royal family.

“The Saudis have a historic relationship with Afghanistan and will eventually have to accept the Taliban (again) … They have no choice,” said a foreign diplomat in Riyadh, who like others called for no ‘ls identify them more.

It is unknown whether the pragmatism will extend to the re-establishment of diplomatic relations: the Saudi and UAE authorities did not respond to requests for Reuters comments on Afghanistan and the Taliban.

Al-Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have limited their response to the Taliban’s acquisition to saying they would respect the election of Afghans and urge the group to promote security and stability after a protracted state-backed government uprising. Units.

“Both countries are pragmatic and have shown that they can work with different regimes around the world,” said a Qatar-based diplomat.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates tried to facilitate inter-Afghan peace talks after the fall of the Taliban 20 years ago, but did not participate in the main negotiations organized by Qatar that failed to reach a political agreement.

Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani, a member of Qatar’s ruling family and former prime minister, said the countries will have to deal directly with the Taliban.

“The world should respect the current situation in Afghanistan and not take steps to restrict them (Taliban),” he tweeted on Wednesday. “The international community should give them hope that it will accept them and cooperate with them in exchange for their commitment to international standards.”

Two diplomats in Qatar, where the Taliban maintain a representative office, said the Gulf states are likely to take the lead in the United States’ top security ally. Washington has not said whether it would recognize a Taliban government.

SWAY SUDI UNIC?

Saudi Arabia could try to exert a moderating influence on the Taliban with its status as custodian of Islam’s two holiest sites, said Umar Karim, a member of the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has also acted to ease restrictions on daily life in the conservative kingdom, the cradle of Islam, including limiting the powers of the religious police, allowing women to drive and allowing public entertainment. .

“Saudi Arabia still has a strong religious card against the Taliban,” Karim said, suggesting Riyadh could also open channels with the group through Pakistan.

Afghanistan has a long border with Pakistan, which protected Taliban leaders for a long time and maintains long-standing ties with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Pakistan was the only other country to formally recognize the previous Taliban regime.

The Saudis and the UAE could also use their financial influence as leverage as in the past, and the Taliban are likely to have a lack of cash to govern the country, as Kabul’s foreign exchange reserves are parked in the United States, out of reach. Read more

TALIBAN 2.0?

Three foreign diplomats in Abu Dhabi said the UAE had privately expressed concern that Afghanistan under the Taliban could once again be a safe haven and a breeding ground for extremists.

“Terrorist groups can use (Afghanistan) as a base if world powers cannot negotiate quickly with the Taliban (the transition of power),” columnist Yousef al-Sharif wrote in the UAE newspaper Al Bayan.

“The international community must contain the situation and learn from the catastrophic failure of the American experience.”

The Taliban have tried to present a more conciliatory face since they took control, saying they will not allow Afghanistan to be used to launch attacks on other nations and will respect women’s rights under Islamic law.

The initial international reaction has been deeply skeptical.

“The arrival of the Taliban in Kabul means that extremism is at the seat of power,” Saudi commentator Faheem Al Hamid wrote in the Okaz newspaper. He said any new civil war in Afghanistan would attract foreign players, including Iran, a neighboring Shiite Muslim, in disagreement with the Sunni Taliban.

“It takes a lot from the Taliban. Not only does it back up words with actions, but it also changes extremist thinking rooted in its ideology … towards tolerance and moderation.”

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have long struggled to contain political Islamists they see as a threat to the dynastic government of the Gulf, including the Muslim Brotherhood, in Libya, Sudan, Syria and other places in the Middle East. and North Africa.

Reports by Aziz El Yaakoubi, Alexander Cornwell and Marwa Rashad Edited by Ghaida Ghantous and Mark Heinrich

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